Cozy Corner: Syria Archives

September 13, 2006

Syrian Subterfuge

The Counterterrorism Blog posits an explanation for the attacks on the US embassy in Syria which resonates with my own suppositions:

According to well informed Syrian sources, today's Terrorist attack against the US embassy in Damascus is one of the "Machiavellian" Assad operations. Let's remind ourselves that the Syrian regime's senior strategists and intelligence officers were trained by the sophisticated "intox" schools of the former Soviet's KGB. One of the main tactics of this old school, refined by Hafez Assad during his rule of Syria is based on the following concept: If the equation is to your disadvantage, create a new problem, offer to solve it, obtain recognition; and by that you'd change the equation.

Read the whole thing, but the short version: the Syrian government is behind the attack. True or not? Unclear. But it's plausible.

Posted by Andy at 02:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

August 11, 2006

Flexible Response and the Killing of Innocents

Wow. Blackfive has written a much better version of the followup I was planning to Flexible Response and Suicide Bombings.

Go read it.

Posted by Andy at 07:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

August 09, 2006

Round-down

News: 15 IDF reservists killed today.; Two Palestinian women (a bomber and her driver) arrested before they reach their target. In the same story, two Islamic Jihad terrorists killed in their "house in the Jenin refugee camp". Good for the IDF. Folks, once you build houses, you have to stop calling it a camp. This is a refugee camp; Syria starts checking its bomb shelters:
This shelter has also been renovated and Mona does not know where to go in case of an emergency. "This shelter has been sold and bought and we don't even know by who. Once it was open a store for cellular phone equipment, afterwards as a warehouse, and later as a home, before finally becoming a barber shop. The problem is that if it is private property we have no right to enter it in any situation."
Hmmm, maybe Syria is turning towards capitalism....
Commentary: Sandmonkey mocks an anti-suicide bomber public service announcement. Amusingly sad. Of course, we all remember the old ONDCP PSAs, so we shouldn't make too much levity of it.; One of Dave's readers thinks they saw Green Helmet guy on TV - running the country. Hrm.
Random: Meryl got a job. Congratulations! And that means I won't have her one stop shop of news and snark quite as active in the future....

Posted by Andy at 09:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

August 04, 2006

Syria/al Qaeda wrapup

In a comment on this post, Syrian Minister of Communications and Technology Amr Salem tells us:

Alqaida and the Iran issue was never discussed with me by Sky-News or any other source. This was completely fabricated

(previous coverage: declaiming the story, bio, story here.)

Al Hayat interviews Bashar al-Assad, and leads in with:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Al-Hayat: al-Qaida's Presence in Lebanon is Growing … Sometimes We Pursue Terrorists and They Flee There.

Yet nowhere in the article, which is written as a Q&A, is al-Qaida mentioned. Is this another disclaimable quote?

Foreign minister Walid Moallem draws a line between Hizb'allah and al Qaeda:

Asked what he meant by extremists, Moallem said "groups like al-Qaida and men like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, those who kill innocent people in Iraq, Europe and the United States."

"These people are no freedom fighters," he said. "These people are terrorists. You cannot compare them with Hezbollah or Hamas."

I'll be honest, at first I was dismissive of this quote, but this is at least a starting point for conversation. Not to defend either Hamas or Hizb'allah, but their tactics and strategies are very different than those of al Qaeda - at least today.

Posted by Andy at 07:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

July 29, 2006

If Syria has WMDs, does Hizb'allah?

Power Line notes the likely shipments of WMDs to Syria from Iraq:

Based on this and a number of other reports, it seems likely that some, at least, of Iraq's WMDs were shipped to Syria shortly before the war started in 2003.

Now I have to wonder. If Syria is arming Hizb'allah, and Syria has Saddam's WMDs, are we going to see those WMDs come into play in this war?

Posted by Andy at 08:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

We don't know nothing!

This may or may not be in error:

The Syrian government has knowledge about the presence of al Qaeda cells in Lebanon and Syria and is prepared to share it with the United States, Sky News reported July 23, citing Syrian Cabinet minister Amr Salem. Such al Qaeda cells have grown since Syria withdrew its forces from Lebanon, he said. Salem added that Syria is also prepared to mediate discussions on Iraq between the United States and Iran.

But now, the People's Daily Online reports:

Syria categorically denied on Tuesday reports that it has information about the terrorist al- Qaida organization in Lebanon and that it is ready to offer them to Washington as "baseless".

The press office of Syran Ministry of Communication and Technology made the denial in a statement, the official SANA news agency reported.

The French AFP news agency carried a report by Britain's Sky News television on Sunday that Syria is prepared to tell the United States the whereabouts of al-Qaida cells in Lebanon.

They quoted Syrian Communication and Technology Minister Amr Salem as saying that "Syria has real hard knowledge."

The Syrian statement denied the reports, saying that "the news is categorically baseless and these issues have not been raised at all during the interview or in any talk of the minister with this news network or any media side."

The press office of the ministry has asked representative of the Sky News network about the subject and got an official statement that the al-Qaida issue was not part of the interview and the network did not say the minister has made such remarks, said the statement.

"Such lies and deviation are only to deform the honorable stances of Syria", it stressed.

Sky News' website is mum; even though they seem to be the root source of all of this. So either:

Several news agencies misquoted Sky News. Unlikely.

Sky News misquoted Amr Salem. Given that at least the Daily Telegraph has specific Amr Salem quotes, this is a bit doubtful, but a possibility.

Amr Salem exceeded his authority in disclosing this information. Possible, but I'm not sure that's the likelihood.

The Syrians used this venue to leak that al Qaeda is in Lebanon (like we didn't know that), either to warn the US against adventures in Beirut, or to warn the Lebanese to stay in line. We'll have to see what game they're playing, but I'm going to put my money on this one.

Posted by Andy at 11:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)

July 27, 2006

What's Syria up to?

I almost missed this:

The Syrian government has knowledge about the presence of al Qaeda cells in Lebanon and Syria and is prepared to share it with the United States, Sky News reported July 23, citing Syrian Cabinet minister Amr Salem. Such al Qaeda cells have grown since Syria withdrew its forces from Lebanon, he said. Salem added that Syria is also prepared to mediate discussions on Iraq between the United States and Iran.

Besides our old friend Amr Salem just wanting to get his name in the news, why would Syria tattle on al Qaeda?

Option 1: This is just table stakes to get to a bargaining table. Iran and Syria have been clamoring that they need to be part of the solution (after all they are part of the problem; if they can be part of the solution, maybe we'll forget that inconvenient fact). Hurting al Qaeda probably doesn't matter to to Syria, especially if it preserves their catspaw, Hizb'allah.

Option 2: We've already seen that Iran is sending suicide bombers to Lebanon. What if this is designed to push al Qaeda against a wall, and force their hand? Increased violence in Lebanon plays into what Syria thinks is their long term winning strategy.

Option 3: Syria wants to reduce the amount of terrorism in the world. Nah.

Posted by Andy at 04:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (2)

July 24, 2006

Buying the farm

Zvi Bar'el just doesn't get it:

The government of Lebanon, Hezbollah, the United States, France and the United Nations have all realized now that the key to achieving a long-term and sustainable cease-fire by means of the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south lies in a resolution to the Shaba Farms dispute.

At this stage, however, it is not enough for only Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to agree that the return of the Shaba Farms area would spell an end to the movement's "liberating" role. Syria is no less an important player in this regard. In keeping with maps approved by the UN, the Shaba Farms area lies in Syrian territory, so an official document in which Damascus relinquishes the area would be required too.

The reasons that Syria "relinquished" the Shebaa Farms are simple. First, they know that Israel is unlikely to ever return any Syrian territory - it is occupied by conquest, and Israel has settled the land, and is working it. Second, because Israel withdrew from all Lebanese land - not having entered Lebanon to settle, but just to manage a buffer - "ceding" Shebaa to Lebanon permitted Hizb'allah to use Shebaa as their plausible excuse for fighting. Even if, hypothetically, Zvi's plan were to work it has several critical flaws.

First, it rewards Hizb'allah. Second, it demonstrates that Syria could give Hizb'allah an excuse to fight, recognized internationally, by, say, ceding the Golan to Lebanon. What then? Third, it again puts a terrorist actor on the same footing as a nation-state. The free world must stop appeasing terrorists, and then negotiate with other nation states.

Posted by Andy at 09:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)

July 21, 2006

Who is Amr Salem?

As I noted here, Amr Nazir Salem is Syria's Minister of Communication. Since I expect (hope?) to hear a lot more from him in the future, I figured it would be worth doing a bit of research on him.

Continue reading "Who is Amr Salem?" »

Posted by Andy at 02:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (2)