& Cozy Corner: Lebanon Archives

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September 05, 2006

And the narrative slips a little further...

Kofi wants to "mediate" between Israel and Hizb'allah:

The United Nations will appoint a mediator to try to resolve the issue of two Israeli soldiers captured by Hezbollah, Secretary General Kofi Annan said.

``Both parties have accepted the good offices of the secretary general to help resolve this problem,'' Annan said at the end of a visit yesterday to Saudi Arabia, according to the UN. ``I will designate someone discreetly and quietly to work with them to find a solution.''
...
``My mediator should be the only mediator,'' Annan said in Jeddah. ``If others get involved he will pull out because you will get wires crossed. It will be very confusing and it will not be effective, so there must be one mediator and effective channels of communications with both parties.''

Kofi, mediate this: You are aiding and abetting the terrorists. 1701 was pretty clear. Tell Hizb'allah to release the Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, or else. (Feel free to make up an or else like "we'll not denounce the Zionists for two whole months in the UNHRC", since we know you wouldn't be able to back up any other threat.)

August 25, 2006

A little interview

The Gaming Blog has an interview between the BBC and a Lebanese. Enjoy it, and Shabbat Shalom!

August 21, 2006

More photostaging

Rob Port points us at this BBC coverage of the return to Bint Jbeil:


When Um Ali Mihdi returned to her home in the southern Lebanese city of Bint Jbeil two days ago, she found a 1,000lb (450kg) Israeli bomb lying unexploded in her living room.

The shell is huge, bigger than the young boy pushed forward to stand reluctantly next to it while we get our cameras out and record the scene for posterity.

So the scene that the BBC was recording for posterity was endangering a child by shoving them next to an unexploded ordinance which could detonate at any minute? Hmmm, wouldn't that be a violation of any one of a number of international laws?

Lebanese prisoners released!

Well, Hizb'allah fighters, anyway:

Israel on Monday handed over to UN peacekeepers five Lebanese men who were captured during an Israeli commando raid late on August 1 on the Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek, according to a peacekeeping official.
...
The UN peacekeeping official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the prisoners were returned at the Unifil headquarters in Naqoura, just north of the Israeli border.

Hmmm, seems like a good ceasefirely thing to do. Anyone going to return the favor? Bueller? Bueller?

August 20, 2006

Lebanon's fifth column?

Lebanon's defense minister discusses Lebanon's fifth column:

Lebanon's defense minister said Sunday any group breaking the cease-fire in southern Lebanon would be "decisively dealt with" and would be considered a traitor.

Defense Minister Elias Murr's comments apparently were to air concerns that factions other than Hizbullah, which he said is committed to the cease-fire, may attempt to draw Israeli retaliation by firing on the Jewish state.

"We consider that when the resistance (Hizbullah) is committed not to fire rockets, then any rocket that is fired from the Lebanese territory would be considered collaboration with Israel to provide a pretext (to Israel) to strike," he told a news conference at the Defense Ministry.

So what you're saying, Mr. Murr, is that when a "civilian" in the south pulls his motorbike over to the side of the road, pulls out a rocket launcher, and fires from next to a residential building, targeting innocent civilians, that it can't possibly be Hizb'allah, and is, in fact, an Israeli sympathizer? Pull my other leg.

August 19, 2006

A silly question

The IDF raids Lebanon:

By Sam F. Ghattas, Associated Press Writer
BEIRUT, Lebanon --Hezbollah fighters battled Israeli commandos who landed near the militants' stronghold deep inside Lebanon early Saturday, killing one soldier, in the first large-scale violation of the U.N.-brokered cease-fire between the sides.
Hezbollah said its guerrillas foiled the raid after a gunbattle, and the Israeli army said one soldier was killed and two were wounded, one seriously.
Witnesses said Israeli missiles destroyed a bridge during the raid -- the first major violation of the U.N.-imposed cease-fire that took effect Monday following 34 days of fighting.

The rest of the AP coverage is more like a set of guesses than a report:
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to release information to the media, said the Israelis apparently were seeking a guerrilla target in a nearby school but had no other details.
...
Such a bold operation risked scuttling the fragile cease-fire and suggested Israel was going after a major target near Baalbek -- perhaps to rescue two Israeli soldiers snatched by Hezbollah on July 12, or to try to capture a senior guerrilla official to trade for the soldiers.
...
Local media said Sheik Mohammed Yazbeck, a senior Hezbollah official in the Bekaa and a member of the Shura council of the group, may have been the target. Yazbeck is a native of Boudai.

The classic comment, however, is found in non-AP coverage:

Parliament Speaker Nabih Beri, Hezbollah's main ally in government, said he also raised the incident with the envoys.

"If Lebanon had launched a similar act, wouldn't the Security Council have met to impose tough sanctions against it?" Beri asked, adding that he saw the raid as an attempt by Israel to provoke Hezbollah into retaliation and foil the deployment of the Lebanese army in south Lebanon.

Let me answer that one for you, Nabih: Nope. The UN wouldn't. Did you notice any tough sanctions against either of the governments you work for for starting this war? Didn't think so.

August 18, 2006

The acceptability of innocent death

Innocents die all the time. Sometimes, for factors outside human control; other times, through neglect, either personal or at the state level, and other times, through direct action, again, at the personal or state level.

What is acceptable? What isn't? And really, who is accountable?

In the case of deaths that an individual causes - like, say John Mark Karr and JonBenet Ramsay, it's easy to assign blame, and to assert accountability. (And there, now I'll get a dozen hits from the Cult of JonBenet.) But you know that's not where I'm headed.

Now what about deaths where a group of actors cause them, but another group stands by and does nothing? Seems to happen a lot in Africa these decades; but who is holding folks accountable for standing by and doing nothing? Again, not where I'm headed; but we need to make sure we remember Rwanda, and Darfur.

Let's look, specifically, at the Lebanese innocents killed this last month. We can argue till we're blue in the face about the exact number of civilians killed (noting that a dead Hizb'allah terrorist looks like a dead Lebanese civilian), but let's face it, some died. Who is accountable? What is acceptable?

UNICEF, I think , has it both right and wrong. In an exchange with one of their staffers, she wrote to me:

UNICEF's position in all conflicts is that children should be treated as "zones of peace," neither targeted, recruited to fight, nor otherwise made victims of an adult conflict.

I'll admit, I half agree with her. But let's look at accountability. Who killed the civilians in Lebanon? By my reckoning - and, by the reckoning of, at least, American criminal law, as well as the Geneva convention - Hizb'allah did. In fact, every time Hizb'allah fired a rocket from behind a civilian, or built a school over a ammo dump, Hizb'allah killed someone.

Israel, on the other hand, saved them. Every time Israel chose not to target a location, or dropped a leaflet, or made a phone warning, or hijacked a radio station, Israel was saving innocent lives. Lives that had already been targeted by Hizb'allah for death.

No amount of innocent death is acceptable. There is no magic number where you can say "nine kids dead, that's okay; but that tenth one? Nope." The death of every innocent should ignite a spark of outrage.

But the murderer wasn't the one on the other side of the war. The murderer was right behind the victim.

August 15, 2006

Isn't Hizb'allah a government?

People seem to keep saying the Hizb'allah isn't a government. But isn't it? Consider:

  1. It has an army.
  2. It builds schools.
  3. It runs hospitals.
  4. It holds seats in the government of the federation to which it belongs.
  5. It engages in foreign relations.
  6. It runs a news service.
  7. It collects the passports of journalists operating in its territory.
  8. It attacks sovereign nations.
  9. It taxes goods.

Sounds like a government to me.

Hizb'dollie

Did you know that AP/Hizb'allah has an evacuation and return service just for dolls?.

August 13, 2006

Operation Zionist Scapegoat, Phase III

Operation Zionist ScapeGoat Facility bombed! Confederate Yankee has the scoop:

Lebanese civil defense rescuers, try to remove two blanket-wrapped bodies, found trapped under debris and concrete of the destroyed buildings, attacked late Monday by Israeli airstrike, in the southern Beirut suburb of Chiah, Lebanon, Tuesday Aug. 8, 2006. The raid on the Muslim southern suburb next to a Christian neighborhood killed at least 15 people, police officials said. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

The bodies were found already wrapped in blankets under the debris of the building.

I'm trying to think of rational reasons that Lebanese would keep pre-packaged corpses in their homes, and I'm coming up with nothing. Nada. Zip.

One irrational explanation is that some bodies are being saved by Hezbollah to use in photo ops at a later date, and that the Hezbollah Body Shop (for lack of a better term) got hit, and buried those that should already have been buried.

Apparently, no one has notified Confederate Yankee of the internal operations of Operation Zionist Scapegoat. Phase 3 was planned for Chiah; unfortunately, the operatives tasked with positioning and unwrapping the bodies were detained by the despicable "Muslims for Moses" proselytization group. Rumors of an internal reorganization of the OZS field office are denied with no comment by Hizb'allah press agent Lin Noueihid.

Violating the Dead

In case you haven't yet seen this video, it was produced by German TV magazine ZAPP:

Sandmonkey's conversation with his grandmother has the most telling line:

You know what was the worst part of that Video I saw today was? When they showed you the baby, they made sure to cover her face digitally. That hurt. That was a slap on the face. The video showing us exploiting our dead and the german media respecting them.

August 12, 2006

Israel's future

Right now, I see two possible short term options: either Lebanon and Hizb'allah buy into the UN decree, or they don't. If they don't, they're clearly taking a play from Arafat's book, as the UN has called this round for them. And why wouldn't Hizb'allah like to see the deployment of a sympathetic Lebanese Army, and a significant number of toothless UN human shields? It only makes the next war harder for Israel. So let's assume they play along.

Unless the kidnapped soldiers come home, Olmert's government will fall. Even if they do come home, his government is almost certain to fall; you can't take one of the world's most professional, best equipped militaries, and have the appearance of a loss to a terrorist militia backed by Iran. Olmert's government needs to be replaced with someone more hawkish. Convergence / realignment / buzzword of the week has been a disaster, which I believe was Sharon's plan. No one who isn't an anti-Semite can possibly look at the situation in Gaza and believe that the Palestinians want peace. The next government will probably be based on the premise of security through prompt application of force.

We'll see another Hizb'allah/Israel fight, and not too far in the future. One possibility is that the next one will have open military coordination with Iran and Syria, which could be either bad or good for Israel, depending on how surprised the IDF is. Either way, I predict that within two years, maybe only one, either Tel Aviv or Damascus will be in flames.

August 11, 2006

Over the River and through the Woods

The IDF moves north:

One month after the outbreak of the war in Lebanon, during which the Israeli army has established a security zone along the border and reached a depth of 12 kilometers into Lebanese territory, the IDF got a 'green light' Friday night to continue north up to the Litani River.

I'm so glad that Meryl's analysis was off. I do wonder if my analysis was correct.

Flexible Response and the Killing of Innocents

Wow. Blackfive has written a much better version of the followup I was planning to Flexible Response and Suicide Bombings.

Go read it.

August 10, 2006

Putting it together

The US asks Israel to hold off on widening the ground assault:

The IDF General Staff postponed the expansion of ground operations in south Lebanon late Wednesday night, after the security cabinet earlier in the day approved a plan for a widened offensive that would take the army to the Litani River, over 20 kilometers from the border, and beyond, in an effort to prevent the incessant Katyusha rocket attacks on northern Israel.

The troops were already rolling late Wednesday when they were ordered to halt. It appears heavy US pressure delayed the offensive to allow diplomacy to run its course. A senior minister said Wednesday that Israel might delay the expansion for 2-3 days for that purpose.

And then, a terrorist plot to blow up airplanes is disrupted:

A plot to blow up planes in flight from the UK to the US and commit "mass murder on an unimaginable scale" has been disrupted, Scotland Yard has said.
It is thought the plan was to detonate explosive devices smuggled in hand luggage on to as many as 10 aircraft.

Let me draw the lines (not the ones Ace has noted):

  • Israel is fighting terrorists

  • The appeasement world calls them resistance fighters

  • US asks Israel to hold off for a few days

  • US and UK foil terror plot

Folks have been calling this the First Media War for a while. I'm glad to see our leaders have figured it out. An Israeli assault last night would have fought with this in the news cycle, and the "peace in our time" wing would have focused on that, or called the bombings a "natural reaction." Instead, we get to put, front and center on the world stage, very clear demonstration of the enemy that is radical Islam and its terrorist arms.

In a few days, Israel will begin her attack. She'll have the thirty days, uninterrupted by false diplomatic efforts, to deal with Hizb'allah.

For real coverage of the Londonistan plan, see:
Lorie Byrd at Wizbang (hey, Poli, regret driving her away yet?.
Ace of Spades.
Michelle Malkin wonders if the wandering Egyptians and the Dearborn terrorist supporters are tied in, and notes the spiral evolutionary cycle of Islamic terrorists and airplanes.
Lifelike Pundits takes the opportunity to skewer the anti-war-on-terror-or-anything-related-to-Bush left.
Brendan Loy, newly Orthogonal Moderate prognosticates that air travel will be FUBARed for a very, very long time.
USS Neverdock ups the count to 14 terrorist plots stopped and disclosed in 6 years, and realized that the BBC censors haven't caught up to the news cycle.

August 09, 2006

Round-down

News
15 IDF reservists killed today.
Two Palestinian women (a bomber and her driver) arrested before they reach their target. In the same story, two Islamic Jihad terrorists killed in their "house in the Jenin refugee camp". Good for the IDF. Folks, once you build houses, you have to stop calling it a camp. This is a refugee camp
Syria starts checking its bomb shelters:
This shelter has also been renovated and Mona does not know where to go in case of an emergency. "This shelter has been sold and bought and we don't even know by who. Once it was open a store for cellular phone equipment, afterwards as a warehouse, and later as a home, before finally becoming a barber shop. The problem is that if it is private property we have no right to enter it in any situation."
Hmmm, maybe Syria is turning towards capitalism....

Commentary

Sandmonkey mocks an anti-suicide bomber public service announcement. Amusingly sad. Of course, we all remember the old ONDCP PSAs, so we shouldn't make too much levity of it.

One of Dave's readers thinks they saw Green Helmet guy on TV - running the country. Hrm.

Random

Meryl got a job. Congratulations! And that means I won't have her one stop shop of news and snark quite as active in the future....

Have too many civilians left the south?

Nasrallah wants the Lebanese Army to comes south, but not to take over:

"In the past we used to oppose or not agree on deployment of the army at the borders ... because we were concerned about the army. ... We agree on deployment of the army, but do note hide our fear for it," Nasrallah said.

"The army could be destroyed within few days," he said.

Sounds to me that he wants more human shields against Israel; and when Israel leaves, he'll just kill them. Yeah. This is the madman Lebanon wants dictating their strategy.

August 08, 2006

Game Theory and Hizb'allah

Slate ponders:

CAN GAME THEORY SOLVE THE ISRAEL-LEBANON WAR?

Israel's strategy for dealing with Hezbollah has been called "tenfold deterrence": Any attack will be met with a far more forceful counterattack. Unfortunately both for Israelis and Lebanese, the strategy did not deter Hezbollah's missiles.

Continue reading "Game Theory and Hizb'allah" »

August 07, 2006

Swing and a miss!

Celebration at the Hizb'allah press office (anti-Zionist wing) was cut short, as Operation Zionist Scapegoat, phase 2, appears to have failed.

Continue reading "Swing and a miss!" »

It's a Quagmire, alright

I couldn't resist this article. Thanks to Daled Amos, I've come across this piece describing the quagmire an aggressor is facing in the Middle East. On his own, a theocratic dictator decided to attack one of the most powerful nations in the region, and now has his hands full managing the resulting imbroglio. His original allies are starting to call for him to cut and run, and those who the world think might sympathize? They don't.

Continue reading "It's a Quagmire, alright" »

August 06, 2006

Even I'm better with Photoshop than this...

Will the Reuters photoscam undo someone's career in the same way the bogus CBS memos did? Probably not, but it helps demonstrate the lack of integrity that a lot (but hopefully, not all) of MidEast stringers and staff photographers have.

Little Green Footballs has the story.

Continue reading "Even I'm better with Photoshop than this..." »

August 05, 2006

You first!

Apparently, France and the US have reached a compromise to enforce on Israel and Hizb'allah:

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, "calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations."

That language would be a major victory for Israel, which has insisted it must have the right to respond if Hezbollah launches missiles against it. France and many other nations had demanded an immediate halt to violence without conditions as a way to push the region back toward stability.

Wow! It's a major victory that a cessation in hostiliites requires the aggressor to stop shooting, too?

The resolution asks that Israel and Lebanon agree to a set of principles to achieve a long-term peace. One crucial element is an arms embargo that would block any entity except the Lebanese government from buying weapons.

Wait a second. I thought that Lebanon wasn't at war with Israel? Isn't that what the Lebanese keep telling everyone? "This isn't our war, it's those wacky militants in the south, who have nothing to do with us, except seats in our parliament, and better equipment than our military!"

Other principles spelled out in the resolution include the disarmament of Hezbollah; the creation of a buffer zone from the U.N.-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon north to the Litani River; and the delineation of Lebanon's borders, especially in the disputed Chebaa Farms area.

The border was already delineated in 2000, folks. How is this a victory for anyone but Hizb'allah?

The resolution would call for the current U.N. force in Lebanon, known by its acronym UNIFIL, to monitor the cessation in fighting. Once Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the series of principles, the Security Council would then authorize a new peacekeeping force for the region.

Because UNIFIL has such a track record of history?

Any deal will have to gain the acceptance of both Israel and Hezbollah, which could prove difficult.

Umm, I thought it was Lebanon a few paragraphs ago? I see - are we now admitting that Hizb'allah has veto authority over the Lebanese government?

Israel says it wants to continue fighting for up to two weeks to seriously diminish Hezbollah's military capability; Hezbollah's chief spokesman said Thursday the militia will not agree to a cease-fire until all Israeli troops leave Lebanon.

Does that include the two you are holding?

August 04, 2006

The Economy of Second-Hand Missiles

Since today seems to be "answer questions day", I thought I'd address AbbaGav's:

Consider the overhead costs of maintaining these ten thousand missiles year after year. This would just be a nightmare for Hizballah's accountants, who I'm sure are praying, to a man, that Nasrallah fires off every last one of these suckers right away. Consider just the inventory taxes -- do you have any idea what the depreciation schedule is for second-hand missiles?

I thought I'd take a look into this. Now, granted, Hizb'allah isn't a publicly traded stock (rumor has it they are in negotiation to acquire Herlitz AG to get the coveted "HEZ" listing), but we'll use GAAP rules anyway, as the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles seems like a good start.

Under GAAP, calculating depreciation requires four things: the cost, estimated life, residual value, and the method of depreciation.

The cost is the hardest thing to calculate. Hizb'allah has sold itself to Iran and Syria to get the missiles; so effectively, they represent a round of VC funding for Hizb'allah. Like most VC rounds, this probably wipes out any previous shareholder value. Let us assume that Hizb'allah has 10,000 potential shahids (like most good companies, they can inflate their numbers). Since each shahid's life is valued at the requisite 72 virgins, the capital value of Hizb'allah is thus worth 720,000 virgins. Therefore, each of the 10,000 missiles must have a value equivalent to 72 virgins.

Next, is the estimated life. Now, this one's pretty hard. I wonder if Hizb'allah's annual report's risks section says something like "Zionist Aggressor. Any day, those darned Israelis may decide to stop putting up with our shit, and come over and kick our asses, and destroy our missiles. If so, this may drastically reduce our long-term ability to induce more shahids to join our cause, and grow our potential virgin pool." Of course, this assumes we're treating the missiles like a capital expense, instead of like an operating expense, which they more closely resemble. Functionally, each missile has two lifespans: deterrent/threat as capital, and to shoot at Israelis as an operating expense. But we can actually set the estimated life to be 37 years, and then use a trick to depreciate it.

Normally, depreciation is done as a straight line, or even some front-loaded models. We, however, want to rear-load the depreciation, so we are going to select the units of production method. Under this method, instead of depreciating simply based on time, we depreciate based on units produced - that is, missiles fired. Here, we'll employ a one-to-one ratio; each missile fired fully depreciates the remaining value of the missile. Since we can assume a bathtub curve of missile failures, we'll additionally depreciate 10% of the value in the first year, 1% in each of the next 30 years, and 10% in the subsequent 6 years; this ties to the 37 year depreciation span. If we postulate that the delivery of missiles had been evenly spread over the previous 6 years, prior to this conflict, Hizb'allah accountants had to depreciate 108,000 virgins (rumors that Allah heaved a sigh of relief are believed to be infidel lies).

Now, for residuals. What is a rocket worth after it fires? According to Aussie Dave, channelling Arutz Sheva, the launching of 2268 missiles has resulted in 28 fatalities, and 642 injuries. Hizb'allah bookkeepers take a notoriously dim view of survivors, as the Zionist have been known to rehabilitate them, and even allow them to breed (damn that Jewish uterus!). Hizb'allah accountants do, however, note the fatality rate of .01234568 casualties for each missile (even though some casualties can be retroactively declared shahid, this is not currently within the long-range business plan, and thus, is simply upside). But what is a dead Jew worth to a Hizb'allah accountant? Well, according to Wikipedia, 26.3% of Israelis are under the age of 15, only 48% of whom are female (male virgins, despite rumors to the contrary, are not useful in the heavenly bartering system, and females are preferred to be under the age of 15). Statistically, therefore, each rocket is expected to send .00158514 useful virgins to the afterlife., this is the residual.

Hence, each rocket fired has a average depreciation on use of 61.1984149 virgins. Compared to the normal annualized depreciation of 7200 virgins, each batch of 117.65 rockets effectively burns one additional year of depreciated value.

August 03, 2006

Qana Under Review: Astonishing Nobody

Snoopy The Goon is back, and here's his commentary on Qana:

The IAF must own up to the tragic reality, show empathy and humility: these children, women and elderly were killed by our bomb. Everyone, from the pilot that pressed the bomb release button to the IDF CoS, will have to live with the moral weight and personal part played in this tragedy.

It would be grossly unjust to assign sole guilt to the IDF. We cannot ignore the gross miscalculation these murderous bastards took in starting this war, as we cannot ignore the fact that they used Kafr Qana, indeed that building as a launch site for Katyushas with blatant disregard for those innocent lives.

Someone at the IAF was listening, apparently:

Israel Defense Forces' inquiry on the bombing of a building in the south Lebanese village of Qana that killed 56 civilians admits a mistake but charges that Hezbollah guerrillas used civilians as shields for their rocket attacks, according to a statement released early Thursday.
...
In a statement summarizing the inquiry report, the Israeli military said Israel did not know there were civilians in the building. "Had the information indicated that civilians were present ... the attack would not have been carried out," the statement said.

So chalk up an intelligence victory for Hizb'allah - and maybe this wasn't such a farfetched conspiracy theory:

Sunday, Hizb'allah slaughtered 37 children in the village of Qana, in addition to a score of adults. Hizb'allah leader Nasrallah was not available for comment, as he was coordinating his next strikes with Syrian and Iranian government officials in Damascus, but a notional Hizb'allah operative gloated off camera, "We knew we could get the Israelis with this one! 50 of our own people! They are shahid to the cause! And many of them were handicapped, so we have killed two birds with one stone!"

Of course, now Hizb'allah's PR wing can relax, because HRW is on the case:

HRW said Israel's contention that Hezbollah fighters were hiding among Lebanese civilians did not justify its "systematic failure" to distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hmmm, but what justifies the media's, and HRW's systematic failure to distinguish between them? Oh, the fact that Hizb'allah terrorists dress up in civvies and park their rocket launchers next to residential buildings might have something to do with it?

Converging to Lebanon

Jameel at The Muqata questions Olmert's rationale for pushing the "convergence" plan during this war, and provides a call to action.

August 02, 2006

It's not the timestamps, folks

It's EU referendum vs. the Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse over the Qana photo shoot affair, with the Jerusalem Post reporting from the sidelines.

And hey, why shouldn't I add my own commentary?

One of the points that the AP spends most of its energy on is the timestamp argument:

The AP said information from its photo editors showed the events were not staged, and that the time stamps could be misleading for several reasons, including that web sites can use such stamps to show when pictures are posted, not taken. An AFP executive said he was stunned to be questioned about it. Reuters, in a statement, said it categorically rejects any such suggestion.

First off, I'm with Volokh:

I don't think the question of whether or not the photos were staged has any bearing on one's view of the Israel-Party of God conflict (even if they were actually faked, not just stage,that would be the least of Hezbollah's sins). It also doesn't change my view of the overall situation if 60 (original reports) 28 (more recent reports of how many bodies the Red Cross actually found there; of note that the reporters at the scene quoted the higher figure basd on pure hearsay;) or zero (conspiracy theorists) civilians were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Qana. So long as Israel has taken reasonable precautions to limit civilian casualties, as it has, the moral responsibility for any death lies with the Party of God for using Qana as a staging ground for attacks on Israel, knowing (far better than Israel) that civilians had remained in the village and were at risk. So why care if the photos were staged? Well, if that's your attitude, why not just have Oliver Stone recreate the scene and spread those photos around the international media?

That said, I can come up with any number of valid explanations for the timestamps being odd. Maybe the photographers did not have their cameras in the correct timezone; or the timezone was not synchronized with the computer they uploaded to. That accounts for the hour being wrong. And as anyone who uses a digital camera over time knows, the clocks will skew until you manually reset them (NTP doesn't work so well on a non-networked device); my wife and I run into this when we take pictures on vacation and try to create time-based slideshows. So really, those timestamps are irrelevant to the veracity of the "story."

The more damning evidence is the variety of poses and locations of Mr. Green Helmet and the bodies he carries; the precision of numbers that Hizb'allah asserted were in the building, even without bodies being found - while it is possible they had a good census, it may be that the bodies are still under the rubble - because they placed them there. And, lastly, even if this isn't a Pallywood event, the fault still lies with Hizb'allah for the deaths of the civilians. Never forget that.

And, for my last snark, quoting from AP:

"It's hard to imagine how someone sitting in an air-conditioned office or broadcast studio many thousands of miles from the scene can decide what occurred on the ground with any degree of accuracy," said Kathleen Carroll, AP's senior vice president and executive editor.

While I think a lot of people think Kathleen is pointing at all the bloggers criticizing the media, I disagree. She is actually agreeing with us. She is admitting that AP has absolutely no clue what's going on on the ground, but doesn't see that as her problem. That's where we disagree.

August 01, 2006

The Law of Unintended Consequences: Into Bekaa

Into the valley of the shadow ...:

Israel Defense Forces commandos reportedly landed by helicopter late Tuesday night near the Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek in what Lebanese security sources described as a major operation against suspected Hezbollah positions.

Lebanese security sources said the troops landed as aircraft launched several strikes near Baalbek, which is located in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. (Click here for map)

One Lebanese officer saying the Israel Air Force presence in the air above the ancient city was "unprecedented."

Captain Ed notes the effect the ceasefire had on the Israeli public:

Israel had seemed ready to shut down its offensive a few days ago, but the Israeli people rose up in indignation at the criticism leveled at them for defending themselves. This shows that the new push may have all of the critics confounded. Israel is not just looking to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon with this new action -- they want to strike at Syria.

Hizb'allah's Qana PR strategy may have backfired. By forcing Israel to slow down, now they're accelerating. While a few days ago, it seemed like Israel would not press the war to its logical next step - sealing the Syrian border - now it is. And maybe, the step after that is possible.

More on Qana

Via Solomonia, we learn that Libanoscopie has a scoop on Hizb'allah's Qana activities (translation):

"The Hezbollah, pinned down by the seven point plan proposed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which proposes a plan for deployment of the Lebanese army over all of the territory and especially in South Lebanon, and then the disarmament of the militia of the Party of God, wanted to cause the negotiations to fail. It put into operation a Machievellian plan by creating an event that would allow it to cancel this project. Knowing full well that Israel will not hesitate to bombard civilian targets, Hizbullah militants placed a rocket launcher on the roof of a building in Qana and brought disabled children inside, in a bid to provoke a response by the Israeli Air Force, to create a new situation, using the massacre of innocents to regain the initiative in the negotiations."

Maybe this wasn't so farfetched after all.

Kudos to YnetNews

YnetNews provides coverage of the analysis of the questionable coverage of Qana:

A number of web logs in the United States and Britain have claimed that a man who appeared in much of the international press's coverage of the Qana bombing lifting children's bodies may have been a Hizbullah agent who staged photo-ops for the international media.

Now if only the The Times and Post would follow suit.

Hmm, does that make this a snark about the absence of coverage in the face of coverage of the analysis of the questionable coverage of Qana?

(hat tip: the everwatchful Dave at IsraellyCool).

Open letter to the Post and the Times

Ombudspersons (Deborah Howell, Byron Calame);

First, I will admit that most of my reading of your papers is to identify what I perceive as their bias against America, Israel, our national security efforts, and our economy. I'll except some of the guest editorials in the Post, as you do a better job of having selections that raise interesting and diverse points of view.

I'm sure by now you are aware of the events in Qana. I'm sure you're also aware - given Hizb'allah's notorious manipulation of the media; Hizb'allah's propensity for martyring the Lebanese in pursuit of their aims; the IDF's assertion that the building did not collapse when struck by their munitions; Hizb'allah's strategic positioning of assets in and around civilian structures; and images of alleged rescue workers and dead children with strange time discrepancies - that many of us who are following the attack on Israel and her war of self-defense closely question the "official" storyline. As fading bastions of investigative journalism, I would find it odd that your papers are *not* investigating these claims, were it not for my first paragraph.

My challenge to you - Investigate. Inform.


-Andy
http://www.cozikin.com/

July 31, 2006

More from UNICEF

Apparently my earlier question didn't get me banned (or maybe it's the use of a different address to email them than we used to donate after the tsunami). More email from UNICEF:

July 31, 2006

Dear Friend,

Yesterday's attacks in Qana are dramatic evidence that children are once again paying the price of war. As hostilities continue, more than a third of those already killed and injured have been children.

With staff in Lebanon since 1948, UNICEF has been able to rapidly assess the situation of children forced to flee their homes. Their number has increased to more than 400,000, and I hope that you will be able to make a donation today to help these children their hour of need.

UNICEF is providing emergency supplies—including essential medicines, nutritional supplements, and water and sanitation kits—and will begin a measles immunization campaign tomorrow to ward off the outbreak of disease.

This is only the beginning of relief efforts in the region. UNICEF needs $23.8 million to save and protect the children caught in this crisis. Please give generously.

Thank you for your support.

Sincerely,

Charles J. Lyons
President, U.S. Fund for UNICEF

ABOUT UNICEF and Israel: UNICEF is non-partisan and does not take sides in conflict situations. UNICEF's concern is the safety and welfare of all children, regardless of their race, gender, ethnicity, religion or nationality.

UNICEF has no plans to operate emergency relief programs in Israel. As with many other nations that once received assistance from UNICEF, Israel has attained economic security and no longer qualifies as a developing nation according to international standards. Instead, as one of the world's leading industrial nations, Israel provides assistance to UNICEF. For more information, please click here.

Apparently, enough of us yelled at them that now we get a disclaimer. But my response to them, unaddressed by their website:

Mr. Lyons,

How many Israeli children are displaced as a result of Hizb'allah rockets?

Do you care?

-Andy

What year is it, anyway?

Jeff Jacoby, one of the two reasons I read the Boston Globe, notes that Americans have reverted to September 10th thinking.

Gallup's numbers suggest two things. First, that most Americans, sizing up the warfare in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, recognize that Hezbollah is the aggressor and that Israel is fighting in self-defense. And second, that most Americans believe this fight has nothing to do with the United States.

I wonder, should we just rebrand September 10th as National Naivete Day?

I wonder who that aid worker is?

EU referendum collects pictures from Qana, and notes the mishandling of the dead for PR purposes. I'd note that there are an awful lot of gentlemen in flak jackets and helmets, and wouldn't they look paramilitary, but we can see that Hizb'allah has a very liberal 'dress-down' policy.

July 30, 2006

Caught on tape

Apparently, the building in Qana did not collapse immediately following an IDF airstrike:

"The attack on the structure in the Qana village took place between midnight and one in the morning. The gap between the timing of the collapse of the building and the time of the strike on it is unclear," Brigadier General Amir Eshel, Head of the Air Force Headquarters told journalists at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, following the incidents at Qana.
Eshel and the head of the IDF's Operational Branch, Major General Gadi Eisnkot said the structure was not being attacked when it collapsed, at around 8:00 in the morning.
The IDF believes that Hizbullah explosives in the building were behind the explosion that caused the collapse.

I will admit, this one left me stunned. Elder of Ziyon has a little more.

Sadly, this has accomplished a little of the Anti-Zionist Alliance's goal: IAF operations over Southern Lebanon are suspended for 48 hours:

Israel has agreed to suspend its aerial bombardment of southern Lebanon for 48 hours, effective immediately, to allow for an investigation into Sunday's bombing that killed 56 civilians, a U.S. State Department official said early Monday.

If I believed there would be a useful investigation, I'd almost support this, but who is going to investigate? The UN, already known to cover up any evidence that isn't "balanced."? The Lebanese government, whose army has taken sides, and has fired upon Israelis?

And some excuses for irrationality: The Palestinians are too distracted to release Gilad Shalit, Iran now must "reevaluate" it's response to the incentives plan around its nuclear capability.

Wow, this is starting to sound like a plot from a science fiction novel.

(bonus hat tip: Dave at IsraellyCool.)

Hizb'allah's deadliest kill yet

Sunday, Hizb'allah slaughtered 37 children in the village of Qana, in addition to a score of adults. Hizb'allah leader Nasrallah was not available for comment, as he was coordinating his next strikes with Syrian and Iranian government officials in Damascus, but a notional Hizb'allah operative gloated off camera, "We knew we could get the Israelis with this one! 50 of our own people! They are shahid to the cause! And many of them were handicapped, so we have killed two birds with one stone!"

For the past three days, Hizb'allah operatives in and around Qana have been playing a cat-and-mouse game, as operatives launch missiles at innocent civilians in towns and cities in sovereign Israel. With each launch, the IAF would target the launchers to protect their own civilians. Meanwhile, other operatives were collecting shahids. These innocent civilians were collected into one large building, "for their safety", and not provided information about Israeli warnings for innocent civilians to leave the village and head north for safety. Rumors that the civilians were held by force could not be substantiated at press time, as none of the shahid were available for comment.

Hizb'allah's public relations department is said to be pleased with their success, as the international media blames Israel for this latest of death of human shields. As hoped, The Jerusalem Post is comparing this to the shelling of Lebanese civilians at a UN outpost ten years ago in Qana. Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, is apparently more resolute than Shimon Peres was a decade ago,

"I express deep regret, along with all of Israel and the IDF, for the civilian deaths in Qana. Nothing could be further from our intentions and our interests than harming civilians - everyone understands that. When we do harm civilians, the whole world recognizes that it is an exceptional case that does not characterize us. In contrast, Hizbullah has launched rockets with the aim of murdering innocent civilians in northern Israel."

In protest, the UN compound in Beirut came under attack from Lebanese rioters. It is not clear if the rioters were aware of the impotence of the UN.

Hamas also seized this opportunity, claiming that Qana would be the excuse for its attacks against Israel. An anonymous terrorist was overheard, "Whew! Now we have a good excuse for the next year or two of murders, bombings, and Qassam launches at women and children in Sderot! Because who knows when Israel will hand us another opportunity like this?"

***

Disclaimer: All quotes by terrorists are made up, and probably fictional. Death of innocents is truly heartbreaking, and while I denounce Hizb'allah for causing these deaths, my sympathy lies with the families of the deceased, and the IAF pilots involved.

Update [31 July 2006: 00:31 UTC-5]: The IDF asserts the building was destroyed by Hizb'allah. Wow. Apparently, I didn't go far enough on this one.

July 29, 2006

If Syria has WMDs, does Hizb'allah?

Power Line notes the likely shipments of WMDs to Syria from Iraq:

Based on this and a number of other reports, it seems likely that some, at least, of Iraq's WMDs were shipped to Syria shortly before the war started in 2003.

Now I have to wonder. If Syria is arming Hizb'allah, and Syria has Saddam's WMDs, are we going to see those WMDs come into play in this war?

July 28, 2006

What's a little damage among friends?

SoccerDad asked for a compare and contrast of two articles. On one hand, we have Charles Krauthammer:

Had Israel wanted to destroy Lebanese civilian infrastructure, it would have turned out the lights in Beirut in the first hour of the war, destroying the billion-dollar power grid and setting back Lebanon 20 years. It did not do that. Instead, it attacked dual-use infrastructure -- bridges, roads, airport runways -- and blockaded Lebanon's ports to prevent the reinforcement and resupply of Hezbollah. Ten-thousand Katyusha rockets are enough. Israel was not going to allow Hezbollah 10,000 more.

And, on the other hand, we have Eugene Robinson:

The one thing that's clear so far is that Rice believes that allowing Israel to decimate Hezbollah and drive what's left of the group out of southern Lebanon is such a valuable step toward her "new" Middle East that it's worth crippling a nascent Arab democracy with hundreds of civilian casualties and billions of dollars worth of infrastructure damage.

The obvious contrast is, of course, that Krauthammer puts the damage in context - Israel is doing the bare minimum damage to achieve their means. Robinson doesn't bother. The telling quote, however, is one that SoccerDad left out from Robinson's article:

Rice's predecessors have all discovered that containment, incrementalism, trust-building and similar unglamorous, snail-paced measures are the worst way to handle the Middle East -- except for all the other conceivable ways.

In fact, Robinson is just plain wrong. Israel has a nice, quiet border with Jordan. A nice, quiet border with Egypt. By and large, a nice, quiet border with Syria. What do those three borders have in common? Oh, yeah - Israel kicked their teeth in. And when they came back for more, Israel did it again. And again. And again.

Now, the territories and Lebanon? That's where Israel has tried those unglamorous measures. And, let's see - attacks across her border. Her citizens killed. Her soldiers abducted.

And now, a lot of us think Israel needs to kick some teeth in. Because in the Middle East, power is respected. Diplomacy isn't.

July 27, 2006

Midmorning Roundup

Elder of Ziyon has a history of the conflicts in Lebanon. So did AFP, but, shall we say, they left something out?
Donald Sensing at Winds of Change covers the "Not It!" syndrome affecting the world powers. Anyone surprised?
Craig Newmark notes an interesting new record set by Iran, and follows up by pointing us to Mark Steyn's review of Before The Dawn, who notes an interesting trend of warfare death rates across the millennia.
JoshuaPundit gives us a history lesson on land for peace.
Michael Totten talks about the fragility of Lebanon, and plans to head back. I hope he elucidates on the parts of Lebanon not under attack by Israel.
Bill Roggio looks at Hizb'allah's capabilities, and what this may mean for the future of the proxy war with Iran.
Al Qaeda doesn't like that their ratings are slipping to Hizb'allah, and vows to get back into the fight.
Dave at IsraellyCool has a big roundup today. A memorial to the fallen at Bint Jbail; a tech company in Thailand boycotting Israeli addresses; Nasrallah goes to Damascus; Australia notes that a peacekeeping force requires peace as a precondition, and Katyushas continue to fall.
Meryl notes the PR success of an IDF soldier, and that Nasrallah's trip to Syria includes a visit with an Iranian envoy. I assume he's placing an order?

July 26, 2006

Hook, line, and sinker

How much of Beirut has been targeted by the IDF?

(h/t: Meryl)

The Alliance of Terror grows

From Arutz Sheva:

Lebanese President Emil Lahoud said today that he supports the Hizbullah terrorist organization.

So let's see. UNIFIL. Syria. Iran. Now Lebanon, openly.

(h/t: Dave at IsraellyCool

The Alliance of Terror grows

From Arutz Sheva:

Lebanese President Emil Lahoud said today that he supports the Hizbullah terrorist organization.

So let's see. UNIFIL. Syria. Iran. Now Lebanon, openly.

(h/t: Dave at IsraellyCool

July 25, 2006

UNICEF only cares about Lebanese children

I just received this email from UNICEF:

Subject: Children in Lebanon need help today
July 25, 2006

Dear Friend,

As hostilities in the Middle East continue, innocent children are bearing the brunt of the conflict. More than a third of those already killed and injured have been children.

With staff in Lebanon since 1948, UNICEF has been able to rapidly assess the situation of the estimated 350,000 children forced to flee their homes. I hope that you will be able to make a donation today to help these children in their hour of critical need.

38 tons of emergency supplies—including essential medicines as well as water and sanitation kits—were sent from UNICEF's warehouse in Copenhagen over the weekend. UNICEF staff on the ground are working around the clock to deliver aid to the children and families isolated by the destruction of roads and bridges.

This is only the beginning of relief efforts in the region. UNICEF still needs $23.8 million to save and protect the children caught in this crisis. Please give generously.

Thank you for your support.

Sincerely,

Charles J. Lyons
President, U.S. Fund for UNICEF

I'm not going to try to downplay the effect on Lebanese children - but where's the love for the Israeli children displaced from their homes?

Boston Rally for ....

Solomonia has interesting coverage of an anti-Israel rally at Government Center (Boston) on Friday:

freelance operative Seva Brodsky was in the house, camera in hand -- and there was much jostling, grabbing, profanity and threats of violence directed toward our intrepid defender of Israel and America. The remainder of this post is either submitted by, or based on descriptions from, Seva. The pictures and video are his.
...
In the ensuing commotion, I suddenly noticed that Noah Cohen grabbed my camera and was quietly trying to break off its swivel monitor. This really stunned me -- I didn't expect he would go to such length and engage in criminally punishable behavior, but I guess, he figured he could afford to do so and get away with it, being surrounded by his comrades-in-arms with no police in sight.
...
Why is it that when we Jews have our demonstrations and rallies, we behave overwhelmingly in a civilized manner in the face of the opposition, and if one of us steps over the line of propriety, the rest admonish such a person? Why do we see such a drastic difference between our behavior and that of our opponents and enemies?

Best quote from Seva, while on the cellphone and taping:
"I'll take an inaccurate Katyusha any day over being in the middle of this crowd."

July 24, 2006

Buying the farm

Zvi Bar'el just doesn't get it:

The government of Lebanon, Hezbollah, the United States, France and the United Nations have all realized now that the key to achieving a long-term and sustainable cease-fire by means of the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south lies in a resolution to the Shaba Farms dispute.

At this stage, however, it is not enough for only Hezbollah and the Lebanese government to agree that the return of the Shaba Farms area would spell an end to the movement's "liberating" role. Syria is no less an important player in this regard. In keeping with maps approved by the UN, the Shaba Farms area lies in Syrian territory, so an official document in which Damascus relinquishes the area would be required too.

The reasons that Syria "relinquished" the Shebaa Farms are simple. First, they know that Israel is unlikely to ever return any Syrian territory - it is occupied by conquest, and Israel has settled the land, and is working it. Second, because Israel withdrew from all Lebanese land - not having entered Lebanon to settle, but just to manage a buffer - "ceding" Shebaa to Lebanon permitted Hizb'allah to use Shebaa as their plausible excuse for fighting. Even if, hypothetically, Zvi's plan were to work it has several critical flaws.

First, it rewards Hizb'allah. Second, it demonstrates that Syria could give Hizb'allah an excuse to fight, recognized internationally, by, say, ceding the Golan to Lebanon. What then? Third, it again puts a terrorist actor on the same footing as a nation-state. The free world must stop appeasing terrorists, and then negotiate with other nation states.

July 22, 2006

Boots on the Ground

Dave and Meryl are covering it, and I'm off to the beach. But the ground war is on.

In the news articles, note the predictable response from Kofi Annan:

I'm afraid of a major humanitarian disaster

Kofi, here's a memo for you: As long as UN peacekeepers stay out of the way, there won't be a disaster. Pay attention to your own backyard. Spare some cycles for Darfur or Somalia, why don't you?

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