Israel's future
Right now, I see two possible short term options: either Lebanon and Hizb'allah buy into the UN decree, or they don't. If they don't, they're clearly taking a play from Arafat's book, as the UN has called this round for them. And why wouldn't Hizb'allah like to see the deployment of a sympathetic Lebanese Army, and a significant number of toothless UN human shields? It only makes the next war harder for Israel. So let's assume they play along.
Unless the kidnapped soldiers come home, Olmert's government will fall. Even if they do come home, his government is almost certain to fall; you can't take one of the world's most professional, best equipped militaries, and have the appearance of a loss to a terrorist militia backed by Iran. Olmert's government needs to be replaced with someone more hawkish. Convergence / realignment / buzzword of the week has been a disaster, which I believe was Sharon's plan. No one who isn't an anti-Semite can possibly look at the situation in Gaza and believe that the Palestinians want peace. The next government will probably be based on the premise of security through prompt application of force.
We'll see another Hizb'allah/Israel fight, and not too far in the future. One possibility is that the next one will have open military coordination with Iran and Syria, which could be either bad or good for Israel, depending on how surprised the IDF is. Either way, I predict that within two years, maybe only one, either Tel Aviv or Damascus will be in flames.
