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August 30, 2006

Profiling

If you haven't heard the wheelbarrow joke, let me share a variant with you:

A mill has a generous policy of allowing its workers to take home sawdust to heat their homes with. However, because the mill works in very fine woods, it has to watch out for theft of lumber. Every night, one of the workers stays late, and takes whatever sawdust no one else wants, puts it in a wheelbarrow, and heads home. Every night, one of the security guards stops him, and inspects the sawdust. Sure that the worker is up to something, he sifts through the sawdust looking for scraps of lumber; he checks the underside of the wheelbarrow; he searches the worker. Nothing.

This goes on for years; it becomes an evening ritual that the men share; almost a private joke. The worker never complains about the searches, the guard, convinced the man is a thief, but with no evidence, reports nothing.

In a pub one evening, the two men run into each other. Over a pint of Guinness, the retired guard asks the retired worker, "Look, be straight with me. I know you were up to something. Just let me know so I can rest easy. What were you doing?"

"Stealing wheelbarrows."

And therein lies the problem with looking for bad things, and not bad people. Had the guard even once raised a concern about the gentlemen, some accountant might have noticed the inordiante number of wheelbarrows the mill went through, and connect the dots. But because the guard was focused on a list of items that might be stolen, the thief got away with it.

There are lots of lessons in this one, but, at the heart, just remember: the bad guy is more clever than your system.

Haveil Havalim

Whoops! Forgot to mention that Haveil Havalim number 84 is up, even if I've been perusing it. Thanks, Meryl, for also forgetting and remembering!

August 29, 2006

Sudden Jihad Syndrome in SanFran?

Apparently, a man in a small SUV ran down 14 people at twelve locations:

One person was killed and at least 14 injured when a man reportedly intentionally targeted pedestrians with his sport utility vehicle on both sides of San Francisco Bay this afternoon.

According to San Francisco police, the driver, a man from the Central Valley, was in police custody. CBS 5 reports the man has been identified as Omeed A. Popal, who has homes in Ceres and Fremont.

The spree apparently began around noon in Fremont, where the driver hit an unidentified man walking along the side of the road. He was thrown off the road and pronounced dead at the scene, Fremont police said. Witnesses said the driver did not slow down.

Hugh Hewitt is collecting datapoints that this might be SJS:

Four callers have confirmed that without doubt this is a Jewish neighborhood, and that one of the victims was run over in front of the Jewish Community Center in the area.
...
Look on the web! the JCC located at 3200 California St. Site of one of the attacks: 3250 California ST.

Wizbang has more coverage.

Yup. looks like Sudden Jihad Syndrome strikes again.

Update: You know how this would be reported if SF were in Iraq?

"Sectarian Violence Rocks San Francisco"
"More Muslim-Jew clashes reported near San Francisco"
"Police find body, 13 casualties in San Francisco"

Patriots v. Redskins

I just realized I hadn't blogged about the game yet. In my defense, the CozyWife and CozikinGirl and I were away for the weekend, but my EyeTV let me record it in HD for later watching.

For those new to the preseason, this week is the week that most teams shake down their first-string starters for a bit, to make sure that they fit as a team. And the Patriots pulled that one off. Still missing was Deion Branch, and that top wide receiver spot is a disconcerting hole. Reche Caldwell still needs some settling to do before he's really a candidate there.

That said, oh my goodness. The Redskins were, shall we say, shellacked. And not by a small amount. With so many Patriots linebackers competing for a spot, Mark Brunell resembled a tackling dummy more than a quarterback; so much so that the Redskins swapped him out early in the third quarter, courteously, the Patriots did the same with Brady. Matt Cassel, I take back everything I've ever said implying you aren't yet ready as a backup quarterback. I can imagine a lot of teams that could be improved by having you as a starting quarterback, and you've definitely shown that this preseason.

I am very excited for the season to start. While I'm a bit concerned about the receiving pool, four tight ends and nine wide receivers is a nice pool to choose from, even if some of those names are brand new.

Toddler Economics

Tim Worstall has a take-down on the primitive economic sense of the Wal-Mart bashers:

To wish that WalMart move from its current low wage and lots-of-labor model, to Costco's (relatively) high wage and low labor utilization is fine, but an adult view would include the acknowledgement that for WalMart to adopt the second model would require that they fire between 860,000 and 975,000 of their current workforce. The child's view would be that everyone should just be paid more because I want it to be so! -- i.e. that there are no side-effects to such decisions.

As I said up at the top, I think Ezra Klein has indeed identified an extremely important question, quite truthfully, one of the two or three most important issues facing the country. Are we adults or children? If we are to be adults of course we should also apply the same blindingly obvious logic to the minimum and living wage movements. As Costco proves, when companies pay more for the labor they hire, they hire less of it.

As an added extra bonus I look forward to Ezra's speech in which he explains why nearly one million people losing their jobs is going to be good for America. I'd most certainly pay good money to see him deliver it to those he is arguing should get fired.

Indeed. And I think it's a nice catchphrase: Those fighting Wal-Mart want to add one million people to the unemployment rolls. Of course, isn't that Wal-Mart's real sin? Giving people an opportunity to get a job, and work their way up out of it?

August 28, 2006

Fare well, Ramses!

Following up to Sandmonkey's account of the move of the Ramses statue from downtown Cairo, Shehrezad ponders the nature of idolatry and leader-worship. They're a good pair of reads. If I had more energy, I'd follow up with an essay discussing that there is a reason Moses's tomb is lost to us, to prevent the worship of the man, or the place.

But I'm tired, so you'll just have to imagine it.

Looking for hate in all the wrong places

Jeff Jacoby points out that US airport security is still looking in the wrong places:

Nearly five years after Sept. 11, 2001, US airport security remains obstinately focused on intercepting bad things -- guns, knives, explosives. It is a reactive policy, aimed at preventing the last terrorist plot from being repeated. The 9/11 hijackers used box cutters as weapons, so sharp metal objects were barred from carry-on luggage. Would-be suicide terrorist Richard Reid tried to ignite a bomb in his shoe, so now everyone's footwear is screened for tampering. Earlier this month British authorities foiled a plan to blow up airliners with liquid explosives; as a result, toothpaste and cologne have become air-travel contraband.
...
Israeli airport security, much of it invisible to the untrained eye, begins before passengers even enter the terminal. Officials constantly monitor behavior, alert to clues that may hint at danger: bulky clothing, say, or a nervous manner. Profilers -- that's what they're called -- make a point of interviewing travelers, sometimes at length. They probe, as one profiling supervisor told CBS, for ``anything out of the ordinary, anything that does not fit." Their questions can seem odd or intrusive, especially if your only previous experience with an airport interrogation was being asked whether you packed your bags yourself.
...
But because federal policy still bans ethnic or religious profiling, US passengers continue to be singled out for special scrutiny mostly on a random basis. Countless hours have been spent patting down elderly women in wheelchairs, toddlers with pacifiers, even former US vice presidents -- time that could have been used instead to concentrate on passengers with a greater likelihood of being terrorists.
...
Of course most Muslims are not violent jihadis, but all violent jihadis are Muslim. ``This nation," President Bush has said, ``is at war with Islamic fascists." How much longer will we tolerate an aviation security system that pretends, for reasons of political correctness, not to know that?

Unfortunately, until we get off our high horse about the appearance of racial profiling, we aren't going to get away with actual racial profiling - and that's a shame.

Naked in Vermont

Teens in Brattleboro have discovered that nudity isn't illegal:

Here on the banks of the Connecticut River, in the busiest parking area of a downtown peppered with bookstores and coffee shops, more is meeting the eye than some people want.

A politely rebellious collection of teenagers passing time in the Harmony Parking Lot this summer has taken to disrobing. Seemingly on a whim, they shed clothes and soak up the sun, nude.

What began as a lark or an ode to youthful exuberance, has now turned into a municipal quandary, because public nudity is permissible in Brattleboro.

In the words of Town Manager Jerry Remillard, if you're naked in public, and you're minding your business, you're legal.

While we all probably have our positive daydreams about what this might be like, remember that legal nudity means anyone can be naked:

Andrew Wdowiak, who works at Everyone's Books, said that he's not put off by the nudity, but that the act has become a little tired. "I think it was more for the shock value," he said. "They weren't flagrant about it."

But last week, when about a half-dozen naked teenagers congregated outside the store," it was like they were baking a cake, and they really frosted it," Wdowiak said. "All the men were naked, and the women were topless. I needed about three drinks to erase that vision."

Hmmm, since most jurisdictions need a license to carry a weapon, perhaps we should license nudists?

August 25, 2006

Dy-na-mite!

Why hassle with newfangled explosives?

A U.S. college student who said he bought dynamite as a souvenir in Bolivia was arrested on Friday when a bomb-sniffing dog found the substance in his luggage after he arrived at the Houston airport from Buenos Aires.

How dumb does everyone have to be?

A little interview

The Gaming Blog has an interview between the BBC and a Lebanese. Enjoy it, and Shabbat Shalom!

Jew not for Jesus

Jackie vs. Jews for Jesus:

Jackie Mason is suing Jews for Jesus, claiming the missionary group damaged him by using his name and likeness in a pamphlet.

"While I have the utmost respect for people who practice the Christian faith, the fact is, as everyone knows, I am as Jewish as a matzo ball or kosher salami," the 75-year-old comedian said in documents filed in state Supreme Court in Manhattan.
...
Susan Perlman, a spokeswoman for Jews for Jesus, said the pamphlet was "good-natured."

"Shame on him for getting so upset about this," she said Friday.

I'm glad that the pamphlet has a "an easygoing and cheerful disposition" (Susan, I think you meant "in good nature"), but really, shame on you. You misrepresented someone's position in an attempt to subvert members of their religion, and you think they shouldn't get upset?

Troops supporting Israel

Now that's a statement by retired generals. 49 of them.


We, the undersigned, believe that Israel's military operation to remove Hezbollah from southern Lebanon is a correct and legitimate response to the creation of an armed force accountable to Syria and Iran residing within the boundaries of Lebanon and using Lebanese territory to engage in cross-border warfare. Israel voluntarily withdrew completely from Lebanese territory in 2000 under the terms of UN Resolution 1559, but the Government of Lebanon was unable or unwilling to assert its sovereignty in the area Israel vacated.

Read the whole thing.

(h/t: Meryl)

August 23, 2006

Egyptian Tourism

Given everything happening in Egypt lately, Sandmonkey is looking for a new slogan. Some notable ones:

"Egypt: If the terrorists won't kill you, our negligence might!"

"Egypt: Visit once, and you might never leave!"

"Nihilists wanted!"

"You came for the tombs, you might just leave in one!"

"Dying to get here? No problem!"

Head on over and suggest your own. I was in Egypt 9 years ago, so I think I'll pass on inciting anyone to head there.

Project Mother Runway!

Okay, those designers are certainly politically incorrect. Did you notice that the slimmest relatives were all chosen before the larger relatives? But I have to say, getting the insight into backgrounds of each of the designers was very neat.

My empathy for Jeffrey reached an all time low after he shreds Angela's Mom.

Trying to figure out the 5-3 split for the interviews - its the cycle of models to designers. (The first five all had sisters/mothers of the first five, the last three has siblings/models of the first three). Of course, the last three had a little cycle of negative energy going on amongst them.

Jeffrey is preserved by Robert's use of a sack. Close one, bucko.

Now that's a headline!

Indefinite jail sentence for vicious, woman-hating rapist:

A man with an implicit hatred of women has been jailed indefinitely for the brutal rape of a 17-year-old virgin - although he claims not to remember committing the crime.

Note: Apparently, indefinitely doesn't mean forever:
He was given an indeterminate sentence by the judge last Friday at Inner London Crown Court, which means that Trotter will only be released from Brixton Prison once the parole board are satisfied that he is not a threat to the public.

He can only apply for release after serving at least five years in prison and he will be put on licence for at least 10 years after he leaves.

But nonetheless, this is the kind of truth in reporting I like to see. Had it been the Boston Globe, the sentence would have been something like, "Alcoholic sentenced to life in prison."

Shalom and Salaam

Via Winds of Change, I have found a liberal Muslim. Specifically, one trying to determine the best political allies in the US for liberal Muslims. (Hint: the orthogonal moderates). His blog is a great read. I highly recommend his analysis on the difference between British and American Muslims, and his non-profit idea.

Eteraz is someone worth keeping an eye on, and an ear to. If the existential struggle between the West and Islamic extremists is going to end without obliteration on one side or the other, it will be thanks to folks like Eteraz. No pressure.

August 22, 2006

Astronomical Mnemonics

Twelve Planets, huh? Well, I guess My Very Excellent Mother Just Sent Us Nine Pizzas is out.

It is unclear if the last latter should be X or U. I decided using eX is also reasonable. Here's a small selection of Mnemonics for us adults!

Buffy: Many Vampires Eat Mischievous Children Just So Undertakers Need Puny Coffins eXcavated.

Solipsist: Many Verbose Eccentrics Mnemonicize Collections Jingoistically So Unaligned Natives Ponder Choosing eXpeditiously

UNIFIL: Many Violent Evil Men Can Just Shoot. United Nations Peacekeepers Could eXacerbate.

Kofi: Many Vicious Extremist Muslims Choose "Justified" Slaughter. United Nations Politicians Claim Xenophobia.

Adnan Hajj: Many Violent Evildoers Martyr Children Just So "Unbiased" Nationalist Photographers Commit Xerography.

Brian Williams pretends to not be The Man

Brian Williams on NBC Nightly News just now:

This next item is for all those who quietly suffer at the gas pump every day across this country watching those numbers fly by. The scene was the Charles St. Stop and Go in Rockford Illinois. The time was yesterday morning. The price at the pump for medium grade unleaded - three dollars nine cents a gallon. But then, a computer glitch somehow moved the decimal point on the price one place to the left. That turned the three dollar gas into thirty cent gas. The attendant noticed something might be wrong when a huge line formed outside the gas station. The pumps were quickly shut down amid fears that oil company profits might plummet. But for one brief shining moment, we the consumers won. It was like the old days, before you needed to refinance your home to fill your tank.

Okay, I could just tear this to shreds, but let me just put it this way: Brian, the clerks shut it down amid fears that they wouldn't have a paycheck since they'd just wiped out the margin for that gas station. They still have to pay the state the nineteen cents a gallon state tax, and still have to buy the fuel to replace it. No, Brian, they weren't worried about the oil companies, they were worried about their livelihoods.

Kashering the Senate

Since Porkbusters asked us to find out who put a hold on the earmark transparency bill:

Senators Tom Coburn and Barak Obama have proposed S.2590, legislation that would create a single website with access to information on nearly all recipients of federal funding. The bill cannot proceed, however, because one or more Senators placed a "secret hold" on it.

Who is the secret holder? We want to know, and we want your help finding out. Call your Senator, and ask them to go on the record denying that they placed the hold. Then e-mail Porkbusters and let us know what they said! Senators who issue denials will be removed from the suspect list --- and those who do not, won't!

I called my lovely senators.

Senator Ted Kennedy's office.

I spent a lot of time on silent hold. When the staffer finally remembered to pick up the phone, I got this response: "I won't be able to give you the answer you're looking for." I was then told to use the webform to ask my question. So I did. Awaiting response.

Senator John Kerry's office.

According to the staffer I spoke with, only members in the committee could have placed a hold on it. The staffer I spoke with asserted that it was not John Kerry, as he was not in that committee. The staffer then transferred me to the Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee office, who then transferred me to the Federal Financial management subcommittee, where I talked to a pleasant staffer. She said I was the second caller today (I warned her there might be more), and volunteered to go investigate the hold, determine whether Sen. Kerry's staffer was correct in the candidates for placing the bill on hold.

Update: I called back to Sen. Kerry's office, and the staffer this time gave a more open response, that Sen. Kerry's has not made a statement yet. Left a webform note for Sen. Kerry, also.

Update 24 August: Chris in Sen. Kerry's office confirms that Sen. Kerry is a cosponsor of the bill, and has not placed the hold on it.

August 21, 2006

More photostaging

Rob Port points us at this BBC coverage of the return to Bint Jbeil:


When Um Ali Mihdi returned to her home in the southern Lebanese city of Bint Jbeil two days ago, she found a 1,000lb (450kg) Israeli bomb lying unexploded in her living room.

The shell is huge, bigger than the young boy pushed forward to stand reluctantly next to it while we get our cameras out and record the scene for posterity.

So the scene that the BBC was recording for posterity was endangering a child by shoving them next to an unexploded ordinance which could detonate at any minute? Hmmm, wouldn't that be a violation of any one of a number of international laws?

A plot of land?

Hmmmm:

Israeli troops are collecting bodies of Hezbollah fighters killed in Lebanon and storing them in refrigerated containers in Israel, the army said on Wednesday.
...
Israel has special cemeteries for Palestinian and Lebanese militants killed in fighting with Israel.

Hmmm. 20,330 sq km. That's 20,330,000,000 square meters. Assuming a 2m x 1m plot, that's about 10 billion possible grave sites.

Now I get the whole martyr strategy. Retaking the land one grave at a time. (Thank goodness there are only 1.6 billion candidates worldwide).

Lebanese prisoners released!

Well, Hizb'allah fighters, anyway:

Israel on Monday handed over to UN peacekeepers five Lebanese men who were captured during an Israeli commando raid late on August 1 on the Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek, according to a peacekeeping official.
...
The UN peacekeeping official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the prisoners were returned at the Unifil headquarters in Naqoura, just north of the Israeli border.

Hmmm, seems like a good ceasefirely thing to do. Anyone going to return the favor? Bueller? Bueller?

Misquoting Snopes

We went over to a friend's house for Shabbat dinner, and, as conversations will, we covered some strange and eclectic topics. At one point, one of the attendees asserted, "Did you know it's Disney policy that no one ever dies on Disney property?" Having been a Disney employee a long time ago, I'll admit I showed skepticism, until the attendee said, "It's true! I looked it up on Snopes!" And that was that. Because Snopes is, of course, the authority on urban legend.

This morning, I looked it up on Snopes:

Claims: Disney can legitimately claim that no one has ever died at one of their theme parks, because they always ensure that accident victims are removed from park property before being declared dead.
Status: False.

I'm sure this has happened to others out there, but I'll admit it was a first for me.

August 20, 2006

Giving away the store

Via WorldNetDaily:

On June 21, a senior DHS official from Washington personally guided Muslim officials from the Council on American-Islamic Relations on a behind-the-scenes tour of Customs screening operations at O'Hare International Airport in response to CAIR complaints that Muslim travelers were being unfairly delayed as they entered the U.S. from abroad.

Wow. First off, I don't care who wants to see backstage. No one should get to see how we do Customs Operations, except for Customs, any governmental oversight bodies, and third party security assessors under NDA. Period. But CAIR? Let's be frank. Even in the most positive of all worldviews, you can't call CAIR sympathetic to the plight of the average American. In a more cynical worldview, you'd have to wonder if any of the tricks used by customs will be discussed with someone who might possibly be connected to a terrorist organization.

Whoever set this up on the part of DHS needs a little reprimanding.

Lebanon's fifth column?

Lebanon's defense minister discusses Lebanon's fifth column:

Lebanon's defense minister said Sunday any group breaking the cease-fire in southern Lebanon would be "decisively dealt with" and would be considered a traitor.

Defense Minister Elias Murr's comments apparently were to air concerns that factions other than Hizbullah, which he said is committed to the cease-fire, may attempt to draw Israeli retaliation by firing on the Jewish state.

"We consider that when the resistance (Hizbullah) is committed not to fire rockets, then any rocket that is fired from the Lebanese territory would be considered collaboration with Israel to provide a pretext (to Israel) to strike," he told a news conference at the Defense Ministry.

So what you're saying, Mr. Murr, is that when a "civilian" in the south pulls his motorbike over to the side of the road, pulls out a rocket launcher, and fires from next to a residential building, targeting innocent civilians, that it can't possibly be Hizb'allah, and is, in fact, an Israeli sympathizer? Pull my other leg.

August 19, 2006

Cardinals at Patriots

There has to be a rule on how many times an announcer can repeat the exact same phrase. Tonight, it was "Tom Brady's favorite receiver is the open receiver." Great. Thanks, guys, for all that value you're adding. I could also predict Gregg Easterbrook cringing when they asserted that the Cardinals might have to blitz a lot this season.

Despite being a pre-season game, the Patriots were playing a very serious game, with starting players for the first half. It was good to watch them shaking out the bugs. Still missing Branch, but Caldwell, Childress, and Faulk were doing a good emulation for Brady. But come the season, he's going to need a lot more options to toss the ball to.

In the second half, Troy Brown came out, and played nicely. After his second reception, the commenter said, "You can't teach that, it's a learned behavior," and then later, about Cassel, "You can't tell me that doesn't look like Tom Brady in there. Not to take anything away from Matt Cassel, but...." I think someone needs to teach them a little bit about the English language.

Matt Cassel did look sweet. It must have been nice for him playing opposite Matt Leinart, and coming out looking much better. He played the second (and third, and fourth) string like Charlie Daniels playing a fiddle, and the players were giving the game their serious attention. Not that they didn't have problems - way too many fumbles and penalties - but Belichick has a nice set of playing pieces.

An Army of Davids

An Army of Davids came in the mail last week, and I just finished it. It's really two books - the first half of the hardcover focuses on the advertised theme of the book - how markets and technology empower ordinary people to to beat big media, big government, and other Goliaths. The second half is a look at the future and technology areas.

Overall, it's a very well-written and approachable book. In reading the first half, I was really struck by the theme that the empowerment of the the individual - the david - has been achieved not by lowering the standards of competitiveness, but instead by placing all the tools that used to be only available to large corporations into the hands of the individual. And that the davids are infinitely more flexible and adaptable than the goliaths have been (as a great recent case in point, witness the recent Fauxtography scandal).

The second half of the book felt like a set of introductions to science fiction novels - giving the near term future history of nanotechnology, AI, space travel, and anti-aging - all in preparation for the coming Singularity.

Read it. Think about how you can take advantage of the technology at your fingertips, now and in the future, to do something which historically, only capital-intensive enterprises could do.

I feel fine

August 22nd is just around the corner. I'm not an End-Timer, but when a lunatic threatens to light up the sky over Jerusalem, and calls my country the Great Satan, I tend to listen. When terrorists plan to blow up airplanes, and murderers walk into charities and gun down innocent women, it behooves one to be a bit prepared.

In three days, maybe we'll look back and scoff at our worries. Me? I went to Costco, and did a little shopping.

Not this time

Turns out that hack of a Macbook's wireless card was faked:

Sounds like SecureWorks, the company who sponsored all this Mac hackery, is finally fessing up to their falsification and admitting that they, in fact, did not find the flaw in Apple's drivers, and that they used a 3rd party card and software to facilitate the exploit.

A silly question

The IDF raids Lebanon:

By Sam F. Ghattas, Associated Press Writer
BEIRUT, Lebanon --Hezbollah fighters battled Israeli commandos who landed near the militants' stronghold deep inside Lebanon early Saturday, killing one soldier, in the first large-scale violation of the U.N.-brokered cease-fire between the sides.
Hezbollah said its guerrillas foiled the raid after a gunbattle, and the Israeli army said one soldier was killed and two were wounded, one seriously.
Witnesses said Israeli missiles destroyed a bridge during the raid -- the first major violation of the U.N.-imposed cease-fire that took effect Monday following 34 days of fighting.

The rest of the AP coverage is more like a set of guesses than a report:
The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to release information to the media, said the Israelis apparently were seeking a guerrilla target in a nearby school but had no other details.
...
Such a bold operation risked scuttling the fragile cease-fire and suggested Israel was going after a major target near Baalbek -- perhaps to rescue two Israeli soldiers snatched by Hezbollah on July 12, or to try to capture a senior guerrilla official to trade for the soldiers.
...
Local media said Sheik Mohammed Yazbeck, a senior Hezbollah official in the Bekaa and a member of the Shura council of the group, may have been the target. Yazbeck is a native of Boudai.

The classic comment, however, is found in non-AP coverage:

Parliament Speaker Nabih Beri, Hezbollah's main ally in government, said he also raised the incident with the envoys.

"If Lebanon had launched a similar act, wouldn't the Security Council have met to impose tough sanctions against it?" Beri asked, adding that he saw the raid as an attempt by Israel to provoke Hezbollah into retaliation and foil the deployment of the Lebanese army in south Lebanon.

Let me answer that one for you, Nabih: Nope. The UN wouldn't. Did you notice any tough sanctions against either of the governments you work for for starting this war? Didn't think so.

August 18, 2006

The acceptability of innocent death

Innocents die all the time. Sometimes, for factors outside human control; other times, through neglect, either personal or at the state level, and other times, through direct action, again, at the personal or state level.

What is acceptable? What isn't? And really, who is accountable?

In the case of deaths that an individual causes - like, say John Mark Karr and JonBenet Ramsay, it's easy to assign blame, and to assert accountability. (And there, now I'll get a dozen hits from the Cult of JonBenet.) But you know that's not where I'm headed.

Now what about deaths where a group of actors cause them, but another group stands by and does nothing? Seems to happen a lot in Africa these decades; but who is holding folks accountable for standing by and doing nothing? Again, not where I'm headed; but we need to make sure we remember Rwanda, and Darfur.

Let's look, specifically, at the Lebanese innocents killed this last month. We can argue till we're blue in the face about the exact number of civilians killed (noting that a dead Hizb'allah terrorist looks like a dead Lebanese civilian), but let's face it, some died. Who is accountable? What is acceptable?

UNICEF, I think , has it both right and wrong. In an exchange with one of their staffers, she wrote to me:

UNICEF's position in all conflicts is that children should be treated as "zones of peace," neither targeted, recruited to fight, nor otherwise made victims of an adult conflict.

I'll admit, I half agree with her. But let's look at accountability. Who killed the civilians in Lebanon? By my reckoning - and, by the reckoning of, at least, American criminal law, as well as the Geneva convention - Hizb'allah did. In fact, every time Hizb'allah fired a rocket from behind a civilian, or built a school over a ammo dump, Hizb'allah killed someone.

Israel, on the other hand, saved them. Every time Israel chose not to target a location, or dropped a leaflet, or made a phone warning, or hijacked a radio station, Israel was saving innocent lives. Lives that had already been targeted by Hizb'allah for death.

No amount of innocent death is acceptable. There is no magic number where you can say "nine kids dead, that's okay; but that tenth one? Nope." The death of every innocent should ignite a spark of outrage.

But the murderer wasn't the one on the other side of the war. The murderer was right behind the victim.

Shrapnel in Shmona

Michael Totten drives through Kiryat Shmona, with some powerful imagery. It's a good read, which I only have to argue with two pieces:

The Israel/Lebanon war created hundreds of thousands of refugees on each side of the border, but that’s where proportion ends. Israel has a real army and a real air force and can inflict real damage on its enemies. Hezbollah, on the other hand, is only strong enough to terrorize people.

I understand where Michael is going with this one, but let's be clear - killing people is real damage.
There is a lot of talk in the media and the blogosphere about Hezbollah’s targets in Israel. Some insist that Hezbollah does too aim its Katyushas at the Israeli military. The “proof” is that 12 soldiers were killed by a rocket just before I arrived on the border.

As I'm sure Michael knows, and implied, but wasn't clear on - those 12 soldiers were just-called up reservists, gathering outside a kibbutz, near a cemetary. Either Hizb'allah had fantastic intelligence, or they were targeting a civilian location, and got lucky.

But go read his article, as the pictures are worth a thousand words. And hit his tipjar while you are there.

August 16, 2006

America, Britain, and Israel

What is it that ties us together? It's simple, really: a veneration of Law.

Let's start with the youngest and oldest: the youngest people, and the oldest republic.

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

I'm hard pressed to find a more beautiful set of words on the planet. In fact, I found them so beautiful, that I have, on several occasions, uttered this oath:

I do solemnly swear that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.

What is about this document, this concept? In drafting this, our forefathers gave birth to a new nation, one which was greater than all of them (a hard feat!), and which could grow, and change, and survive trials and tribulations; a nation that no single man could encompass, and which each of us could contribute to, and know that our children would inherit. And one which, despite being a democracy, would have constant laws that would survive the trials of the mob.

That, my friends is America. Britain? Ahh, how we love our spiritual parent (on an aside, anyone who doesn't think that war can lead to normalized and pleasant relations has never studied the American Revolution or the War of 1812). Britain was the key to the rule of law:

TO ALL FREE MEN OF OUR KINGDOM we have also granted, for us and our heirs for ever, all the liberties written out below, to have and to keep for them and their heirs, of us and our heirs

Ah, the renunciation of power by a monarch, in perpetuity. From that day forward, every man knew, sort of, where he stood. It took a while for the monarchy to be stripped of the rest of its dictatorial power, but the Magna Carta was the key (and, oddly enough, provided for the rights of Jews, and non-Jews, identically as bankers).

And Israel? The oldest and the youngest. A mere 60 years old, or several millenia, depending on how you count it. Here, too, is Law enshrined in the people and the land, but I look to the Talmud for the true rule of Law:

Why did he say: "it is not in heaven"?

Rabbi Jeremiah said: "The Torah was given to us from Mount Sinai. We do not pay attention to an echoing voice, because on Mount Sinai you wrote in the Torah: "You are to incline after the majority" (Exod 23:2).

Rabbi Nathan met Elijah (and) said to him: "What did the Holy One, blessed be He!, do in that hour?"
He said: "He laughed and said: 'My sons have outshone me! My sons have outshone me!'"

God renouncing the ability to change the law out from under man - does it get any more amazing than that?

And here we have it: the renunciation of the rule of God, King, and Mob. And that is why America, Britain, and Israel often look like inseparable allies: all three are founded in the rule of Law, and the expectation that today's rules will still exist tomorrow.

The Sun learns from AP

Normally, I wouldn't even note a flap up between the UK royals and their media, but this is time relevant:

Lurid photographs of Prince Harry in a distinctly friendly embrace with a television presenter were at the centre of a new row between the tabloid press and the Royal Family yesterday.
...
But the newspaper was humiliatingly forced to eat its words last night after Clarence House pointed out that the pictures were taken three years ago.

Has the Sun hired Adnan Hajj?

The future of the Israeli government

AbbaGav looks at the unlikelihood of a collapse of Olmert's coalition, while Carl sees the anti-Netanyahu campaign already gearing up. A good pair of posts, and a lead into my hope and prayer:

May the ceasefire hold for long enough for Israel to regain balance, but not so long that the proponents of peace at any cost begin paying more to extend it. May it last long enough for a new government to rise in Israel, that will prepare for the inevitable war with Islamic fascists to the east, north, and south.

If I were truly ambitious, I'd pray for the peaceful dissolution of Hizb'allah, but I believe in asking for things that have a chance of happening.

August 15, 2006

Be careful who your friends are

Apparently, people will cozy up to anyone who agrees with them on one issue. And some folks are calling them out on it. Norm Geras calls out Jews for Justice for Palestinians:

Your organization claims to be devoted to achieving justice for the Palestinian people. This is an objective which we endorse. For us it will be realized through the creation of a fully independent Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem, where this state exists in peace and reconciliation with Israel. While your founding statement appears to favour such an arrangement, your actions belie your commitment to it. You regularly participate in demonstrations and political activities featuring large numbers of radical Islamists and other extremists who seek Israel's destruction and promote a strongly anti-Jewish programme. You engage in running apologetics for these groups and seek to present them as 'pragmatic'. You whitewash their racist platforms as understandable reactions to Israeli aggression.

Betsy Newmark and William Shawcross call out feminists:

[William]: As a supporter of the peace movement in the 1980s, I could never have imagined that many of the same crowd I hung out with then would today be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with militantly anti-feminist Islamic fundamentalist groups, whose views on women make western patriarchy look like a Greenham peace picnic. Nor would I have predicted that today’s feminists would be so indulgent towards Iran, a theocratic nation where it is an act of resistance to show an inch or two of female hair beneath the veil and whose president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is not joking about his murderous intentions towards Israel and the Jews.

[Betsy]:That is a remarkable sight. These feminists are so opposed to Bush and Blair that they are willing to ally with fanatics who would prefer to seem all women clothed in burkas. This is a religion that still has supporters who believe in honor killings for girls who are raped. And these feminists will march by their side and not say a word against their hateful beliefs.

To those of you sitting to my left: you are known by the company you keep.

Isn't Hizb'allah a government?

People seem to keep saying the Hizb'allah isn't a government. But isn't it? Consider:

  1. It has an army.
  2. It builds schools.
  3. It runs hospitals.
  4. It holds seats in the government of the federation to which it belongs.
  5. It engages in foreign relations.
  6. It runs a news service.
  7. It collects the passports of journalists operating in its territory.
  8. It attacks sovereign nations.
  9. It taxes goods.

Sounds like a government to me.

Temple Israel teach in

Seth Brysk, Director of the Israel Action Center of the JCRC-Boston, along with Temple Israel clergy (Rabbis Elaine Zecher and Stephanie Kolin), provided a "teach in" for members of the Temple Israel community tonight.

The evening was well-enough attended to require moving everyone from the the lounge into the main sanctuary. Unfortunately, the acoustics of the sanctuary were not as conducive to the format of the evening, and many of the comments and questions from attendees were difficult to grasp, so Rabbi Zecher's goal of "allow us not just to hear the people in the front to talk at you, but for us to talk with one another" was not easily met.

Seth began with a presentation entitled "Israel in Maps"; a PDF version can be found here. This presentation provided the opportunity for attendees to gain some historical understanding of the border, and the seeds of conflict.

Unfortunately, I felt that in Seth's efforts to be neutrally informative (especially in the face of questions like, "what is the correlation between the Christian fundamentalism of George Bush and the Islamic fundamentalism of Hizb'allah?"), he didn't manage to reach in as an agent of change, with one exception: the myth of disproportionality. When asked on it, Seth noted the standing orders to members of the IDF to not engage in targeting of civilians, and highlighted the extraordinary measures - from leafletting to automated telewarnings - taken by the IDF which place the IDF at increased risk.

There were a few statements made that I will follow up on separately, as I think out the issues they raised for me.

Advice on understanding

Shehrezad shares some good advice on building a world of mutual understanding among peoples of faith.

Unhappy millionaires

Craig Newmark uses the word of the week (schadenfreude) to point us to coverage of failed lottery winners:

Juan Rodriguez wanted nothing more than to be one of the guys in rural South Texas where he was raised, and he was until six years ago, when he had the misfortune to acquire almost $9 million from the state lottery.

Today, he's lost his anonymity, his buddies, whatever girlfriends he once had, and most of his family, whom he no longer trusts. He rarely ventures outside the trailer here where he lives alone.
. . .
"The rule of thumb we use is sudden wealth will ruin people in three to five years," said Thompson, president of Sage Financial Design, a Connecticut-based company whose clients include instant millionaires.

"At the end of five years, the money's going to be gone or the human being is going to be gone. They either lose their money or themselves or both."

Two observations. First one is for Sage Financial: if your business is to handle instant millionaires, maybe you could help them not be ruined, rather than just observing them, no?

Second: it has always struck me, especially when looking at so-called "happiness" research, that extreme poverty and extreme wealth amplify a person's nature. It might be a part of their nature that they had not indulged before, but there it is. Instant millionaires are people whose daily struggle to make a living restrained their inner demons, and those demons are unleashed in a moment.

Hizb'dollie

Did you know that AP/Hizb'allah has an evacuation and return service just for dolls?.

Lulie and the Town Square

Via Solomonia, the story of Lulie and her cloak of many colors (okay, an Israeli flag). In it, she ends up applying the town square test to Oxford, and finds it wanting:

Today, however, was something different. I was at the train station to pick up another friend, when some guy approached us and asked why I was wearing the flag. I said that I support Israel. He said something to the effect that I had “better take it off”. I shrugged this off and we went on our way.

About five minutes later, he approached us again and said “What did I tell you?” I looked a bit confused. “Take it off,” he demanded. He kept looking at me, so I took it off so he'd stop (he was rather intimidating). When my other friend arrived and we left the station, I put the flag back on and we went back into the centre of town.

Lulie did have two days of good experiences first; but then was harassed by this man until she went to the police. Lulie, a blessing on you for your support of Israel.

August 14, 2006

Roundaround

&tIt's already one of those weeks. Here are some notables for your evening:

Laptops are a-okay!

The UK lowers the threat level:

The current threat level is assessed as SEVERE (as of 14th August 2006).

This means that an attack is highly likely and indicates a continuing high level of threat to the UK.

See Threat levels in the UK for more information on how our threat level system works.

ON the bright side, apparently you can now wear more than your Speedos when flying out of Heathrow; reports of vision strain injuries from excessive "averting the eyes" incidents may have contributed.

August 13, 2006

Look who's blogging!

Via Captain's Quarters, we learn that Ahmadinejad has a blog. And yes, this one looks legit.

It's really too amusing.

Update: Silly me. Via Giyus we learn that it's a malware site, and has tried to infect PCs in Israel. I'm one of those devil-may-care Mac users, running an even less-than-standard browser, so I didn't even think twice about it, even though I should have. I've disabled the link. (hat tip: Carl in Jerusalem)

Operation Zionist Scapegoat, Phase III

Operation Zionist ScapeGoat Facility bombed! Confederate Yankee has the scoop:

Lebanese civil defense rescuers, try to remove two blanket-wrapped bodies, found trapped under debris and concrete of the destroyed buildings, attacked late Monday by Israeli airstrike, in the southern Beirut suburb of Chiah, Lebanon, Tuesday Aug. 8, 2006. The raid on the Muslim southern suburb next to a Christian neighborhood killed at least 15 people, police officials said. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

The bodies were found already wrapped in blankets under the debris of the building.

I'm trying to think of rational reasons that Lebanese would keep pre-packaged corpses in their homes, and I'm coming up with nothing. Nada. Zip.

One irrational explanation is that some bodies are being saved by Hezbollah to use in photo ops at a later date, and that the Hezbollah Body Shop (for lack of a better term) got hit, and buried those that should already have been buried.

Apparently, no one has notified Confederate Yankee of the internal operations of Operation Zionist Scapegoat. Phase 3 was planned for Chiah; unfortunately, the operatives tasked with positioning and unwrapping the bodies were detained by the despicable "Muslims for Moses" proselytization group. Rumors of an internal reorganization of the OZS field office are denied with no comment by Hizb'allah press agent Lin Noueihid.

How AbbaGav got his groove back

Apparently, it takes a UN resolution. Nasrallah's Top Ten Objections to the UN Delay-Fire Agreement. My favorite:

9. Nasrallah still has a big backlog of photos he wants Reuters to run.

Welcome back, FunnyGav!

Haveil Havalim #82 is up!

Soccer Dad demonstrates that he spends way too much time sifting through the Blogosphere; I wonder if he's figured out how to store up AbbaGav's 25th hour and use them all up at once.

I haven't finished going through last week's roundup, and this one is really really long. Joy.

Violating the Dead

In case you haven't yet seen this video, it was produced by German TV magazine ZAPP:

Sandmonkey's conversation with his grandmother has the most telling line:

You know what was the worst part of that Video I saw today was? When they showed you the baby, they made sure to cover her face digitally. That hurt. That was a slap on the face. The video showing us exploiting our dead and the german media respecting them.

Inconvenient Terrorism

WonderMark explains the logic behind the planned airplane attacks.

August 12, 2006

The business of video

Imagine, if you will, that you're a business owner. You sell the parts that are used to make widgets. You do this because all of the widget manufacturers realized it was more economical to buy from you, than to scour the world for all the little components of widgets. You have a good business; since widget parts are a renewable resource. You can get them almost anywhere in the world; and, in fact, this is good, because consumers of widgets often want exotic widgets.

Along comes a cartel, who contracts with you to produce widgets for them. That is, unlike the rest of your customers, they don't want a wide range of widget parts, they want actual widgets. But they have very specific demands for their widgets. None of the widget parts can be of a certain color, for instance. And they're going to pay you a lot of money. In fact, they get grumpy about any widgets having parts of that color, too. They'd like to know that you will try not to distribute widget parts of that color at all.

Sounds plausible, right? In fact, anyone who does business with a European multinational firm - like Ikea or Nokia - know that they enforce their philosophy of ethical business this way. But did you know that the Associate Press Television works this way? And that the preferential customers are a cartel of anti-Israel nations?

Why they hate us

Soccer Dad has a collection of pieces worth reading about our enemies and why they hate us. This parallels a conversation I had with someone recently: the reason that the forces of darkness - specifically, Islamic Fascism, Islamic terrorism, and mob rule - hate Jews, Israel, and America is quite simple: culturally, we believe in the improvement of the individual, and the power of the individual. This makes us a threat to anyone with a power base built on the denigration and enslavement of the individual. We are a threat to them by our very existence, because we prove that the myths they use to enslave their followers are lies.

Israel's future

Right now, I see two possible short term options: either Lebanon and Hizb'allah buy into the UN decree, or they don't. If they don't, they're clearly taking a play from Arafat's book, as the UN has called this round for them. And why wouldn't Hizb'allah like to see the deployment of a sympathetic Lebanese Army, and a significant number of toothless UN human shields? It only makes the next war harder for Israel. So let's assume they play along.

Unless the kidnapped soldiers come home, Olmert's government will fall. Even if they do come home, his government is almost certain to fall; you can't take one of the world's most professional, best equipped militaries, and have the appearance of a loss to a terrorist militia backed by Iran. Olmert's government needs to be replaced with someone more hawkish. Convergence / realignment / buzzword of the week has been a disaster, which I believe was Sharon's plan. No one who isn't an anti-Semite can possibly look at the situation in Gaza and believe that the Palestinians want peace. The next government will probably be based on the premise of security through prompt application of force.

We'll see another Hizb'allah/Israel fight, and not too far in the future. One possibility is that the next one will have open military coordination with Iran and Syria, which could be either bad or good for Israel, depending on how surprised the IDF is. Either way, I predict that within two years, maybe only one, either Tel Aviv or Damascus will be in flames.

August 11, 2006

Pats v. Falcons

I know, you're all going to ask, "But Andy, important things are happening! The UN passed a resolution that Hizb'allah is going to ignore! Olmert's government is going to pay attention to it and fall! People are dying in Darfur! Lamont beat Lieberman, we have a Code Red, and Bush is bicycling away from Cindy Sheehan!"

Well, like AussieDave would say (well, if he was less politic): "Get over it!"

Last night was the first preseason game of the Patriots football season. This is your short primer: preseason games totally don't matter. They are the chance for the coaches to play with their expanded roster, and decide who will have a slot when they are required to cut their rosters for the season. For instance, tonight, Atlanta was trying to figure out who their number three quarterback would be, so they kept alternating between two third-string quarterbacks. They still won the game; the point of the coaching is to maximize the situations you can watch your players play in. This is where I talk about the Pats.

Overall, I'm very optimistic. The Pats were mixing up their players a lot, and they still pulled it together.

Brady looked like Brady, for the one drive we saw him in. Cassel looks way better at quarterback than he did last year, but he still doesn't look like a strong second string; more like a third string. We'd better hope that Brady doesn't take an injury, and that Cassel keeps improving.

In the running game, Maroney rocks. He's got great ball control, can take hits and stay on his feet, and has good moves. You could see the old Corey Dillon out there, too. Adding Cobbs into the mix means the Patriots can have a serious running game, and Cobbs had some nice receptions, to join the passing game, as well. Mills had some nice catches as well. That's good.

The offiensive line did not seem to be protecting Cassel nearly as well as they should have, but that may just be the substitutions to see some different players in there; Gorin may have been the bad apple ruining the bunch. But if that group doesn't settle down, Brady is going to take some punishment.

Defensively, it's harder to tell. There were some very good performances, but the secondary needs to operate like one well-oiled machine, and when you rotate through players, that's hard. I'm pleased with Tully Banta-Cain - he seems eager and able to fill Willie McGinest's role; he's going to fit right into the Vrabel/Colvin/Bruschi package. On the other hand, Don Davis didn't seem to have the oomph at linebacker that he has at special teams. Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel are a fine pair of cornerbacks, even if we almost never saw Ellis Hobbs in action last night.

On whole, I think the Pats have a good cadre, and I expect this to be a good season.

Please, can I have another?

Why am I not surprised that the NY Times reports:

Israel has asked the Bush administration to speed delivery of short-range antipersonnel rockets armed with cluster munitions, the New York Times reported Friday morning. These rockets can be effective against hidden missile launchers.
...
But the Times reports that some State Department officials "have sought to delay the approval because of concerns over the likelihood of civilian casualties, and the diplomatic repercussions." The rockets, the officials told the Times, are fired by the dozen and could be expected to cause civilian casualties if used against targets in populated areas.

Hmmm, the New York Times. And the State Department. Maybe Laurence Simon can start running some form of "leaker bingo."

Over the River and through the Woods

The IDF moves north:

One month after the outbreak of the war in Lebanon, during which the Israeli army has established a security zone along the border and reached a depth of 12 kilometers into Lebanese territory, the IDF got a 'green light' Friday night to continue north up to the Litani River.

I'm so glad that Meryl's analysis was off. I do wonder if my analysis was correct.

Flexible Response and the Killing of Innocents

Wow. Blackfive has written a much better version of the followup I was planning to Flexible Response and Suicide Bombings.

Go read it.

New travel restrictions, and their impact

Here's the real impact of these new travel restrictions - business travelers will be leary of checking their valuables:

"For business travelers in particular it's kind of a Charlton Heston-type of moment," he said, referring to the former head of the National Rifle Association. "You can take my laptop or my Blackberry or my PDA -- out of my cold dead hands."

As an occasional business traveler, I completely agree. When I travel, my carryon usually has my laptop, my camera, my Blackberry, and my iPod, in addition to my toiletries and a change or two of clothes. This lets me do trips of three days or fewer without checking luggage, and also means if I get stranded at O'Hare, I don't have to wait an hour to get my luggage off the plane so I can stay in a hotel.

I'm certainly not going to fly anymore to New York, since I can take the train or drive. D.C. is a longer stretch, but I'll just extend my trips there to compensate for the 450 mile drive. And I'll just defer travel to further locations as long as I can.

August 10, 2006

I believe that Islamic fascism and Islamic terrorism are real.

It's a simple image. It now appears in the right navbar on the index. Why? Because it's true. Some folks out there act like it isn't; like somebody is just making up all these incidents. That Jews gunned down in Seattle and bombers planning to blow up planes in the UK aren't motivated by the same hate for our culture. That Hizb'allah is just a resistance and social services movement, and not a genocidal bunch of terrorists. That Iran wants the bomb just so the US won't push them around.

From now on, let me be clear. I believe that Islamic fascists want to see me dead. Dead for being a Jew. For being an American. For having the right to wear what I want; eat what I want, worship what I want. I believe we are in a long war, for the soul of this planet. And if we lose, it isn't clear that I will be alive, or my family.

Call me a warmonger, call me a Zionist, call me a neo-conservative, call me whatever you want. Just remember that there are people who want to kill you just as much as they want to kill me. Get that straight, and act accordingly.

The rest is negotiable. Our future isn't.

Flexible Response and Suicide Bombings

A friend posited this question to me (paraphrased): Are suicide bombings a legitimate means of resistance under the doctrine of flexible response? Would Westerners adopt suicide bombings if placed in the same situation as the residents of occupied territories?

The easy answer is, of course, no. But the benefit of the blogosphere is I get to explicate:

First, let's understand flexible response. Pre-Kennedy, US policy hinged around two philosophies: proportional, or tit-for-tat response, and massive retaliation. Proportional is exactly what it sounds like - if the Soviets supplied arms to the rebels in one of our satellite states, we would do the same to one of their satellite states (this is different from proportionate response, which is the philosophy that the military good of a response must outweigh the cost to innocents of the response, this will come up later). Massive retaliation as a philosophy asserts that certain actions, rather than prompting an equal reaction, trigger a nuclear scenario to end the game. Basically, this draws a line in the sand that asserts activities beyond this line are unacceptable.

Flexible response is an in-between state. It asserts that escalations may be limited in scope, but may be greater than the trigger action; for instance, a bltzkrieg into Western Europe might be met with nukes in Eastern Europe; or the positioning of nuclear missiles in Cuba might result in a blockade of that country, and threats of retaliation elsewhere. Flexible response has two significant benefits. First, by removing the symmetry of response, it makes it more difficult for an aggressor to decide to accept a tradeoff, as the tradeoff may become far worse than they expect. Second, it provides an option short of nuclear armageddon, especially for significant, strategic threats.

Now that we've defined flexible response, let's look at suicide bombers, terrorism, and resistance.

First off, there are a lot of legitimate targets of resistance. Infrastructure. Military personnel. Government agents. I just finished watching V for Vendetta, and it's worth noting that despite the appelation of "terrorist", V targets government buildings, and government agents, not civilians. That's the sign of a good resistance. Flexible response, in the context of a violent resistance, can include many activities. The institution of a curfew might be responded to with attacks on convoys; abduction of tax agents; jamming of government broadcasts. The point of flexible response is not the damage; it is causing the enemy to rethink their plans.

Terrorism is generally not a legitimate form of resistance (some forms of guerilla warfare have the semblance of terrorism; I am not including those). For here, I am asserting that terrorism is attacks whose primary purpose is the death of innocents for the sake of those deaths. These can be morale terrorism, economic terrorism, or support terrorism. Morale terrorism has as its goal breaking the will of the enemy's populace; many of the citywide bombings on both sides of WWII had this goal. Economic terrorism is designed to slow or halt the economy of your target; the attack an tourists at the Cairo museum (September 18, 1997) are a good example; these attacks not only reduced tourism, but helped confine coalition forces participating in the Bright Star exercise on base, and not spending money on the local economy. Support terrorism is the use of terrorist techniques to induce support for your side; punitive attacks against "collaborators" and their families fall into this category.

What are suicide bombings? Functionally, suicide bombings are a form of morale terrorism, with some economic terrorism thrown in. However, from a cost perspective, suicide bombers are not generally effective anymore, as most individual suicide bombers are now captured or killed with minimal impact to their targets; but even when successful, they are a clear case of disproportionate response. Suicide bombers are a two-fold message to the West. On one hand, they are a message from a culture which values its own lives, and its own futures, so little that they will sacrifice their children for the slim chance of harming civilians on the other side. On the other, they are a message that, from the point of view of the resistance, all of their civilians are part of the resistance (Given that apparently 97% of Palestinians support the actions of Hizb'allah, maybe this is a reasonable inference).
This second message is designed to induce the targets to either lose their morale (we can't kill them all!) or become monsters themselves (well, if they're all terrorists, let's just do something about that).

This whole discussion, however, has not yet addressed the root questions: what would Westerners do? First off, Westerners will clearly sacrifice themselves for their causes; Thermopylae, Normandy, Roi Klein, Doolittle's Raiders, the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising. In these cases, either the Westerner has no option but to sell their life dearly (in death ground, fight), or believe that, if luck and God are with them, they'll survive (it's like the lottery), or is acting to immediately save someone else's life. These are sacrifice, not suicide. True martyrdom - like that of Rabbi Akiva, Jesus of Nazareth, the man in Tianenman Square - is the willingness to force someone else to kill you for your beliefs, rather than renounce your beliefs (the Islamic view of martyrdom isn't; dying for your cause isn't martyrdom, it's poor strategy).

The difference is that Westerners fight for something, not against something. The War on Terror, or War against Islamic Fascism, is really a War for Freedom and Liberty. From a game theory perspective, our first goal is that the world doesn't lose, then that we don't lose, then that we win. Islamic Fascism, however, has a different set of goals: the first goal is that the other side loses. That's the difference. Westerners wouldn't resort to suicide bombings because that's a losing strategy. What would Westerners do?

Well, first off, ignore Israel. Israel would be happy to ignore the Palestinians, if the Palestinians would stop attacking them; in this case, the attacks are the action, not the reaction. But let's hypothesis a fascist Caliphate which has occupied America. What should the response be? Attacks on the religious police. Abduction of government officials. Sabotage of infrastructure.

But strapping a bomb to the waist of your daughter, and sending her to blow up other schoolchildren? Never.

A failure of leadership

Israel Matzav covers a pretty depressing view from Israel Insiders. Apparently, Olmert is playing McNamara to the IDF:

Senior IDF officers have been saying that the PM bears sole responsibility for the current unfavorable military situation, with Hezbollah still holding out after almost a month of fighting.According to these officers, Olmert was presented with an assiduously prepared and detailed operational plan for the defeat and destruction of Hezbollah within 10-14 days, which the IDF has been formulating for the past 2-3 years.
...
Olmert's responsibility for inaction goes much further. The US administration had given Israel the green light to attack Syria. A senior military source has confirmed to Israel Insider that Israel did indeed receive a green light from Washington in this regard, but Olmert nixed it.

Worse is this, if true:

Some senior officers have been mentioning the C-word in private conversations. They have been saying that a coup d'etat might be the only way to prevent an outcome in Lebanon that could embolden the Arab world to join forces with Syria and Iran in an all out assault on Israel, given the fact that such a development would be spurred entirely by the Arab and Moslem world's perception of Israel's leadership as weak, craven and vacillating, and therefore ripe for intimidation.

Putting it together

The US asks Israel to hold off on widening the ground assault:

The IDF General Staff postponed the expansion of ground operations in south Lebanon late Wednesday night, after the security cabinet earlier in the day approved a plan for a widened offensive that would take the army to the Litani River, over 20 kilometers from the border, and beyond, in an effort to prevent the incessant Katyusha rocket attacks on northern Israel.

The troops were already rolling late Wednesday when they were ordered to halt. It appears heavy US pressure delayed the offensive to allow diplomacy to run its course. A senior minister said Wednesday that Israel might delay the expansion for 2-3 days for that purpose.

And then, a terrorist plot to blow up airplanes is disrupted:

A plot to blow up planes in flight from the UK to the US and commit "mass murder on an unimaginable scale" has been disrupted, Scotland Yard has said.
It is thought the plan was to detonate explosive devices smuggled in hand luggage on to as many as 10 aircraft.

Let me draw the lines (not the ones Ace has noted):

  • Israel is fighting terrorists

  • The appeasement world calls them resistance fighters

  • US asks Israel to hold off for a few days

  • US and UK foil terror plot

Folks have been calling this the First Media War for a while. I'm glad to see our leaders have figured it out. An Israeli assault last night would have fought with this in the news cycle, and the "peace in our time" wing would have focused on that, or called the bombings a "natural reaction." Instead, we get to put, front and center on the world stage, very clear demonstration of the enemy that is radical Islam and its terrorist arms.

In a few days, Israel will begin her attack. She'll have the thirty days, uninterrupted by false diplomatic efforts, to deal with Hizb'allah.

For real coverage of the Londonistan plan, see:
Lorie Byrd at Wizbang (hey, Poli, regret driving her away yet?.
Ace of Spades.
Michelle Malkin wonders if the wandering Egyptians and the Dearborn terrorist supporters are tied in, and notes the spiral evolutionary cycle of Islamic terrorists and airplanes.
Lifelike Pundits takes the opportunity to skewer the anti-war-on-terror-or-anything-related-to-Bush left.
Brendan Loy, newly Orthogonal Moderate prognosticates that air travel will be FUBARed for a very, very long time.
USS Neverdock ups the count to 14 terrorist plots stopped and disclosed in 6 years, and realized that the BBC censors haven't caught up to the news cycle.

August 09, 2006

Project Runway notes

I like that they are trying new things with the models each week. Although the "we're just going to randomly eit two of you" seemed even more wacky than usual. But did you see the relief on the faces of the models whose names were called? And how excited they were to actually have input into their designer? And poor Bradley, being, once more, the last designer chosen.

(lots of spoilers follow)

And then, each model actually seemed to pick the perfect project for their designers. Except, of course, for Bradley, who seems to be clueless.

Hmmm, is Angela taking lessons from Reuters? "The machine was working fine when I was using it" then "the bobbin was starting to mess up" - which is it?

Is it me, or is Michael the one of the most focused , least prima donna designers in the room? And I love what his excitement on getting Pam Greer.

Hmmm. Apparently, several designers think "modernize" means "black". Except for Bradley, who thinks Cher needs something out of a George Lucas film.

I loved having the models in. Well, except for Kayne's model. But it let the guys keep being snarky. What's up with that?

Tim Gunn makes me lose it. "I'm concerned." We should send him over to the Middle East, because everybody would just shape right up. "Nasrallah, you've got to pull it together." "Olmert, make this work." "Siniora, I'm concerned."

Runway
What is Heidi wearing? Is this the modern day Hippolyta? It certainly shows why she's a supermodel.

Yay, Michael Kors is back!

Farrah look: eng
Cher: bleh
Hepburn: too much chest.
Marilyn: nice.
Hepburn: very her.
Twiggy: Despite my dislike for Vincent, nicely done.
Grier: GORGEOUS.
Jackie O: What, does he think she's coming out of the Betty Ford clinic?
Diana Ross: Nicely done.
Madonna: Well, if you're modernizing the 80's Madonna....

Hmm, apparently the judges totally disagree with me on Vincent and Twiggy, and Angela and Hepburn.

The good outfits are really good and the bads are really bad.

Yay! Michael SOOOOOOO deserved to win!

Eliminate them both! Please, please, please!

Oh well, we'll get to see Robert eliminated in two weeks at this rate.

And then I went to check Project RunGay for their snarkiness, and discovered that they lost cable! Oops.

Round-down

News
15 IDF reservists killed today.
Two Palestinian women (a bomber and her driver) arrested before they reach their target. In the same story, two Islamic Jihad terrorists killed in their "house in the Jenin refugee camp". Good for the IDF. Folks, once you build houses, you have to stop calling it a camp. This is a refugee camp
Syria starts checking its bomb shelters:
This shelter has also been renovated and Mona does not know where to go in case of an emergency. "This shelter has been sold and bought and we don't even know by who. Once it was open a store for cellular phone equipment, afterwards as a warehouse, and later as a home, before finally becoming a barber shop. The problem is that if it is private property we have no right to enter it in any situation."
Hmmm, maybe Syria is turning towards capitalism....

Commentary

Sandmonkey mocks an anti-suicide bomber public service announcement. Amusingly sad. Of course, we all remember the old ONDCP PSAs, so we shouldn't make too much levity of it.

One of Dave's readers thinks they saw Green Helmet guy on TV - running the country. Hrm.

Random

Meryl got a job. Congratulations! And that means I won't have her one stop shop of news and snark quite as active in the future....

Have too many civilians left the south?

Nasrallah wants the Lebanese Army to comes south, but not to take over:

"In the past we used to oppose or not agree on deployment of the army at the borders ... because we were concerned about the army. ... We agree on deployment of the army, but do note hide our fear for it," Nasrallah said.

"The army could be destroyed within few days," he said.

Sounds to me that he wants more human shields against Israel; and when Israel leaves, he'll just kill them. Yeah. This is the madman Lebanon wants dictating their strategy.

Score one for the good guys

USAToday reports that Jill Carroll's kidnappers - some of them - have been captured:

Four of American journalist Jill Carroll's captor are in custody, the military says. " The hunt continues for anybody and anyone else that was involved not only in these kidnappings but those who ... spread terror in the lives of everyday Iraqi citizens," CNN quotes Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, a military spokesman, as saying.

More detail at Editor & Publisher shows the initiative of our military:

Caldwell said a lieutenant from the 3rd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment decided to investigate a house which he had read about in intelligence reports. He and his Marines entered the house and detained the owner.

"After questioning that suspect, Marines identified additional locations where Jill Caroll was believed to have been held," Caldwell said.

Caldwell said Marines went to a second location and arrested one person. Three others were arrested at yet another place and two hostages were freed.

Anonymous lieutenant: Contact me, and I'll buy you a beer (or other refreshment of your choice). Good job.

Take a breath, folks

A gift for everyone struggling today, this week, this month. Whether you're fighting terrorists, the media, your own political party, or your own demons, just enjoy. And I promise you, Adnan Hajj did not take these pictures.

Another Rommie?

Maybe Brendan Loy will join the Reynoldsian Orthogonal Moderates? (and boy, does that name just totally fail to roll off the tongue....)

August 08, 2006

UNICEF does care...

UNICEF responded very quickly to my last note. First off, I want to commend the Program Services staff for putting up with my heckling and badgering them, and taking the time to educate me. Here's the response, followed by my reply:

(short version: we made up)

Dear Andy,

I have provided you with the following information (this is the “short” version--please excuse its bluntness, but I believe your frustration may be due to us having provided you with too much information, initially, in an attempt to provide you with a thorough response):

In gesture of its recognition of itself as a developed country, Israel has declared itself autonomous from UNICEF and is now a donor. In acknowledgement of our relationship with Israel and our worldwide humanitarian work, Israel has formed its own Committee for UNICEF. Israel not only has not requested our aid during this current conflict--it has not given us permission to enter the country. Furthermore, Israel understands the purpose and focus of UNICEF (the children!) and is supportive of our worldwide work--including our work in Lebanon. Israel does not want UNICEF to divert supplies or energies to aid Israel--it has declared itself capable of caring for its own children at this time.

If you will provide me with information regarding any political statements made by UNICEF or the U.S. Fund for UNICEF or staff members regarding the nation of Israel, which we have a history and deep-rooted relationship with, I will be happy to forward it on to be investigated. UNICEF is an apolitical humanitarian organization and it operates its life-saving efforts for the neediest children in the most underdeveloped countries and regions under the most hazardous conditions, regardless of race, religion, nationality, or adult conflict, which has no bearing on our commitment and dedication. We do not tolerate discrimination in our organization.

For further information on the conflict in the Middle East (particularly the status of the smallest victims), please visit:

U.S. Fund for UNICEF - please review organization policy on “sidebar” (on right, in blue type)

UNICEF - Latest profiles and updates

Israel’s Committee for UNICEF - (please be patient as the homepage is not in English but the links compensate as you click around).

Thank you for your support for the world’s children, and please feel free to contact us if you require further information. We will be happy to assist you.

My reply:

Thank you for your response. I spent some time browsing through the various sites. I had also not realized that Israel was not allowing UNICEF into the country.

Just to be clear, I believe UNICEF does wonderful work (how else would I be on your donor mailing list?). Period. No qualifications.

My frustrations are with statements like this:

To date, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has left 670 people dead and 3,125 injured in Lebanon alone. UNICEF believes one third are children.

The simple act of only calling out the numbers in Lebanon is an implicit act of taking sides; anyone who has compassion, but is not actively educating themselves, will not see that this conflict is taking a toll on all children, not just the Lebanese children. This assumption then builds into Hizb'allah's message to the world that Israel is the problem in region. While I realize that part of UNICEF's strength is that it is apolitical, and one of the few neutral parties left in the world (a qualification which I do not give to much of the rest of the UN); messages like this one tend to touch a cord for those of us frustrated with seeing Israel painted as an aggressor, and the world media cooperating.

On the flip side, I see a positive light in articles like this:

In listening to the young people in Gaza, Lebanon and northern Israel talk—about smoke-filled skies, rushing to bomb shelters and missing their chance to swim in the summer—their similarities are much more striking than their differences. The main thing they share is that they are all young people, poised on the edge of adulthood, and wondering whether theirs will be a life of fear and danger… or a life of peace.


Again, thank you for taking the time to more fully educate me on the issues at hand. Reading through the sidebar, and the earlier messages, I think what strikes me now as different from in your message is the use of active voice in the present situation; I would, very respectfully, suggest the addition of an acknowledgement of the private and government relief efforts in Israel filling the same need that UNICEF is filling for the Lebanese children - effectively, the last line in your concise summary.

Again, thank you,

Andy

Politics and the support of Israel

SoccerDad asks:

Who do you think is better for Israel. Democrats/liberals or Republicans/conservatives?

Whew. Before I dive in, let me clarify: I'm a Reynoldsian Orthogonal Moderate (ROM). And, I think SoccerDad falls into the same trap the rest of us have: associating "liberal" or "conservative" with the existing parties.

To get started, I think that liberalism has won. As a country, the US is among the least racist, most tolerant, has the strongest civil rights, gender equality, you name it. Our tax system is incredibly progressive. Liberals won! This is a good thing. The group that has taken over the Democratic party? Those aren't liberals. Those are socialists, and fundamentalist atheists, and pacificists, and proponents of mob rule.

As for conservatives? We all know that this is two groups, who sometimes overlap - the theocratic conservatives, who want to impose some odd sort of THX-1138 society on us all, and the fiscal conservatives, who would like government to just stop wasting so much money.

So right now, I think there are three parties; one of which can't be bothered to run any candidates.
You can really only get good support from one of the others, since the Democratic politicians can't stick to any agenda other than "oppose Bush."

By and large, the ROM party is the best support - they're friends, but of the sort who will also point out your flaws. Unfortunately, half the ROMs are Democrats, and half are Republicans. Oops. If they ever get their act together, this would be our best source of support.

The Republicans are the next best base - partly because the Republicans have become the de facto War Party - and never forget that we are in a long war. When you're in a the same war as one of your allies, you get the best support from the group that recognizes it.

The Democrats? Even when they're trying to show support, it's just a ploy to stick it to Bush. And as Peter Beinart says, "it's jingoism with a liberal face." We don't need supporters that will turn their back on us when another group comes pandering. And is it any surprise that universities - the hotbed of anti-Zionist propaganda - are also a bastion of Democratic professors?

So, SoccerDad, the answer to the way you asked it is "the Republicans." But somebody needs to get Glenn Reynolds off his chaise lounge and get him to organize the ROM party, because that's our stable base long term.

UNICEF likes form letters

UNICEF responded to my last set of comments. Amazingly, the letter is exactly the same as the one received on July 28th; with one notable difference. I now have a name, and email address.

My response:

This is the exact same message sent to me on July 28th when I challenged Mr. Lyons' initial message. On July 31st, he sent another message. My challenge to UNICEF, I believe, could not be more clear:

On both sides of the border, children are killed, placed in harm's way, and displaced. We can argue until we are blue in the face about fault; but UNICEF has done a very poor job of highlighting the plight of Israeli children. I do not care whether UNICEF is going to send even one penny to Israel; but every time UNICEF sends out a message decrying the plight of Lebanese children, UNICEF participates in the media war, and chooses the side of Hizb'allah against Israel -- that is, to make Israel appear as an aggressor nation.

What is UNICEF going to do about this? Are you going to monitor the children in Israel, and ensure that aid agencies are taking care of children there? Are you going to direct donors who are interested in helping Israeli children to the One Family Fund, or Le'eman Achai?

Looking to stimulate Tzedakah?

Elder of Zion coordinates a donation matching scheme. It's a great model, except Elder needs more sponsors to match with!

If you have a large gift you want to make, why not use it to match someone else's donation, and prompt them to give a little?

Media screwup of the day

Apparently, the Washington Post is tired of Reuters getting all the airtime. One of their reporters goes out on a limb. The short version:

Sunday: Analysts tell me Israel is intentionally leaving rocket sites so that they have an excuse to wage war.

Monday: Those analysts ripped me a new one; they were talking in hypotheticals about various possible strategies, and did not say that Israel was doing that, only that it would be a plausible strategy.

Hmmm, I wonder how many of the other things that reporters have told us, citing unnamed sources, were simply speculation? And, unfortunately, Sunday's interview was on CNN's Reliable Sources, while Monday's was on Hugh Hewitt's show. So everyone, prepare to hear that Israel is intentionally letting rockets land in Israel whenever you engage with folks only peripherally paying attention; I think we've just seen the birth of a KnownFact.

Game Theory and Hizb'allah

Slate ponders:

CAN GAME THEORY SOLVE THE ISRAEL-LEBANON WAR?

Israel's strategy for dealing with Hezbollah has been called "tenfold deterrence": Any attack will be met with a far more forceful counterattack. Unfortunately both for Israelis and Lebanese, the strategy did not deter Hezbollah's missiles.

Unfortunately, that is the entire extent of Tim Harford's coverage of the Middle East; the rest of his article talks a bit about the Prisoner's Dilemma, and various strategies for winning it.

Craig Newmark answers simply:

No.

I somewhat agree with Craig; but I can easily assert that this isn't a simple game of Prisoner's Dilemma. In most games, the two players are, effectively, interchangeable; that is, the game assumes that each has the same win condition. In this case, however, nothing could be further from the truth.

The Terrorists (Hizb'allah, Hamas, Fatah) have a simple win condition: destroy Israel. From their actions, we can infer that while there are milestone wins (gain land; convince Israel not to fight back; gain recruits; convince the West that Israel is evil), there really are no constraining conditions (survive; protect others).

Israel's win condition is equally simple: survive. However, Israel has a lot of constraining conditions: remain a moral country; remain a Jewish nation; function as a democracy governed by a code of laws; protect Israeli civilians; minimize harm to non-Israeli civilians; stay in the good graces of the Anglo Alliance).

Any approach to modeling this in game theory must take this into account. For instance, an endstate of "the world blows up" is actually a win for the terrorists (there may be no more Muslims, but we got the Jews!). Interestingly, if the Terrorists stop playing the game, Israel wins.

So while I don't think that game theory can solve the crisis, it could lead to a deeper understanding of the crisis. I'd be interested to see an analysis of the board, frankly.

August 07, 2006

Amnesty International holds a "vigil"

Amnesty International scheduled a vigil in Davis Square tonight. Odd, since a vigil, in my book, doesn't look like a bunch of election workers on the side of the road:

Oh, wait. What's that right underneath me? The irony of the moment:

By and large, the protesters looked like middle-aged hippies, and college student anti-establishment folks. They were very polite, and were surprised when I asked if they minded if I took their pictures (only one objected, so you'll won't see him centered in any pictures). They were handing out a little yellow "open letter to the members of the UN security council", in which you can find such statements as this one:

"Morever, any such violation [human shields - Andy] of international humanitarian law by Hizbullah would not have absolved Israel from its legal obligations to protect civilians by strictly observing the principle of proportionality."

Heh. Can you spot the false arguments in this statement?

More pictures follow. Unlike Seva Brodsky, I went to a tame rally, so not much exciting here, except for the raspberry lime rickey from JP Lick's.

Someone hands out the open letter to the UN to pedestrians:

The protesters were nice, and all lined up for the camera:








Aha! And here's the blatantly anti-Israel sign:

And of course, what event would be complete without staging a densely packed crowd for your local photographer?

But this is what they looked like most of the hour they were rallying:

And here, the "crowd" breaks up:

Swing and a miss!

Celebration at the Hizb'allah press office (anti-Zionist wing) was cut short, as Operation Zionist Scapegoat, phase 2, appears to have failed.


Phase 1 of OZS, you may recall, involved the setup of civilian deaths in Kfar Qana. Phase 2 was set for Houla, known for bloody fighting during the 1948 war. Earlier today, world media ran with the unverified story of dozens of civilians trapped in the rubble in this border town, and 40 deaths. However, Hizb'allah PR operations personnel appear to have failed to draw Israeli fire onto a mass of civilians, and were also unable to place civilians in a position to be trapped by exploding Hizb'allah munitions.

Unable to produce bodies, Lebanese officials are now stating that the people were all "in a bomb shelter" at the time, with one exception. Rumors that the one fatality was a Hizb'allah advance scout preparing the site are completely unfounded.

Unconfirmed sources in the Hizb'allah press office assert that Hizb'allah will begin plans to proceed with OZS phase three at their earliest possible opportunity.

It's the end of the world as we know it

Omar Fadhil, of Iraq The Model, opines on Iran's motivations in backing Sadr and Nasrallah:

I see the signs that Iran may be starting to launch the mullahs' version of an Armageddon, exploiting the religious beliefs of devout Shiites in the region. While this may sound more the stuff of prophecies than international relations, it is important to understand - especially in countries such as Lebanon and Iraq that have large Shiite populations.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran and the Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in Iraq are both devout believers in the "Imam" of Shia Islam. Also known as "Imam Mehdi" - hence the name of Sadr's militia, the Mehdi Army - he was the 12th grandson of the Prophet Muhammad. According to certain branches of Shia Islam, the return of the "hidden Imam" must be prepared by his followers, in a particular sequence of events. Chaos and rampant violence in the region are supposed to be among signs leading to the main battle in which the Imam will return to lead Shiites to victory.

Scary stuff. We can't forget that in addition to facing those who want worldly power, those who want the destruction of the Jews, and those who want the defeat of America, we are fighting those who are trying to bring about the end of the world.

It's a Quagmire, alright

I couldn't resist this article. Thanks to Daled Amos, I've come across this piece describing the quagmire an aggressor is facing in the Middle East. On his own, a theocratic dictator decided to attack one of the most powerful nations in the region, and now has his hands full managing the resulting imbroglio. His original allies are starting to call for him to cut and run, and those who the world think might sympathize? They don't.


The editor-in-chief of the Arab Times notes:

HASSAN Nasrallah is in a quagmire. If, according to his own statements, Nasrallah knew Israel would attack Lebanon between September and November, if he was aware the Zionist enemy was ready for war and if he had received this information, which even the Pentagon and CIA could not receive, why did he give Israel an opportunity to launch the war before time by kidnapping two of its soldiers? Nasrallah has called for the beginning of a second phase of this war.

In what he calls “Beyond Haifa,” Nasrallah says his fighters will begin rocket attacks deeper into Israel, south of Haifa. We wonder if Nasrallah took any time to review his achievements in the first phase of the war against the enemy before thinking about the next. So far his only achievements have been causing the destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure and killing of innocent Lebanese. If he begins the second phase the only result will be wiping out of whatever remains of Lebanon’s infrastructure and killing of the rest of the Lebanese.

I think that despite the claims of the usual suspects, Arab opinion is not one monotholic view.

August 06, 2006

Haveil Havelim

Haveil Havelim has wandered over to Perspectives of a Nomad. Must remember to submit something for next week; but oh my goodness do I now have reading material for this week. If you want the pulse of the Jblogosphere, this is it!

James Bond license plate frames required

Killed for the crime of registering your car:

Palestinian security forces reported that a 47-year-old Palestinian was killed and his 17-year-old son was injured after unknown assailants opened fire at the car in which the two were traveling in the Nablus area.

Eyewitnesses reported that the car bore Israeli license plates.

I have no doubt that "unknown assailants" were trying to kill some Israelis. Oops. I have no doubt we'll here about this man being "martyred" for the cause; but he was probably just trying to make a living, and raise his children. I hope. If you have a spare moment, send a prayer to his family.

Even I'm better with Photoshop than this...

Will the Reuters photoscam undo someone's career in the same way the bogus CBS memos did? Probably not, but it helps demonstrate the lack of integrity that a lot (but hopefully, not all) of MidEast stringers and staff photographers have.

Little Green Footballs has the story.

AllahPundit wonders whether it is incompetence or bias. I'll just note that incompetence is not a defense in employment discrimination cases, so why should it be here?

Publius Pundit shows us the likely next case of photo manipulation.

The Jawa Report shows earlier instances of Photoshopping and, well, odd shots..

The Shape of Days also weighs in, and concludes that Adnan Hajj isn't even trying anymore.

And, since Glenn Reynolds is on vacation, I'll do the gratuitous plug for him: it's an Army of Davids moment!

Gibson v. Haq

Jeff Jacoby notes an interesting comparison:

In the first six days after his arrest, the media database Nexis logged 888 stories mentioning ``Mel Gibson" and ``Jews." And that didn't include the countless websites, talk shows, and smaller publications that also took it up.
...
According to police and eyewitness reports, the killer forced his way into the offices of the Jewish Federation of Greater Seattle by holding a gun to the head of a 13-year-old girl. Once inside, Naveed Haq announced, ``I am a Muslim American, angry at Israel," and opened fire with two semiautomatic pistols. Pam Waechter died on the spot; five other women were shot in the abdomen, knee, or arm. When one of the women managed to call 911, Haq took the phone and told the dispatcher: ``These are Jews and I'm tired of getting pushed around and our people getting pushed around by the situation in the Middle East."
At a time when jihadist murder is a global threat and some of the most malevolent figures in the Islamic world -- Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hezbollah chieftain Hassan Nasrallah, to name just two -- openly incite violence against Americans and Jews, the attack in Seattle should have been a huge story everywhere. Yet after six days, a Nexis search turned up only 236 stories mentioning Haq -- one-fourth the number dealing with Gibson's drunken outburst. Why the disparity?

Hmmm, I'll note that here at Cozy Corner, we've mentioned Mel Gibson in 4 posts, and the Seattle attack in 4 posts (although never mentioning Haq by name). So now we are 5 and 5.

But I think that, in addition to Gibson's fame, there is a deeper, underlying reason. Fundamentally, Gibson's story is a good Christian parable. Devout man gets drunk, says shameful things, apologizes for them, time for healing and forgiveness (and the cover of the Weekly World News, People, and your local rag). People don't have to feel bad about themselves, although if they harbor any of Mel's deep-seated anxieties, now they can empathize with him. Haq's story? Haq's breaks the multicultural, moral relativism worldview of mainstream America media, because Sudden Jihad Syndrome has no place in a world in which Evil dare not exist.

In short: Mel is a bad man, and we understand that. Haq is an evil man, and we don't/

Iran: stabilization through radiation

From the Sunday London Times:

IRAN is seeking to import large consignments of bomb-making uranium from the African mining area that produced the Hiroshima bomb, an investigation has revealed.
A United Nations report, dated July 18, said there was “no doubt” that a huge shipment of smuggled uranium 238, uncovered by customs officials in Tanzania, was transported from the Lubumbashi mines in the Congo.

Tanzanian customs officials told The Sunday Times it was destined for the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, and was stopped on October 22 last year during a routine check.

The disclosure will heighten western fears about the extent of Iran’s presumed nuclear weapons programme and the strategic implications of Iran’s continuing support for Hezbollah during the war with Israel.

By "heighten", you mean "demonstrate the validity of", right?

A senior Tanzanian customs official said the illicit uranium shipment was found hidden in a consignment of coltan, a rare mineral used to make chips in mobile telephones. The shipment was destined for smelting in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan, delivered via Bandar Abbas, Iran’s biggest port.

Guys - it's cocaine and coffee, not uranium and coltan.

Lubumbashi is the capital of mineral-rich Katanga province, home of the Shinkolobwe uranium mine that produced material for the two atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

The mine has officially been closed since 1961, before the country’s independence from Belgium, but the UN investigators have told the security council that they found evidence of illegal mining still going on at the site.

In 1999 there were reports that the Congolese authorities had tried to re-open the mine with the help of North Korea. In recent years miners are said to have broken open the lids and extracted ore from the shafts, while police and local authorities turned a blind eye.

Hmmmm. As Powerline notes:

Quick, someone send Joe Wilson to Tanzania so he can come back and explain why this report can't possibly be true.

Who's that girl?

A strange case of mistaken identity:

Cerak, 19, of Gaylord, was among nine people from Taylor University in Indiana riding in a school van that collided with a tractor-trailer on April 26.

Five people died in the crash, including Laura VanRyn, a 22-year-old Taylor senior. But VanRyn's mother and father were mistakenly told that she was alive while Cerak's parents were told that their daughter, whose injuries initially left her in a near-comatose state, was dead.

VanRyn's family and boyfriend kept vigil at Cerak's bedside for five weeks before realizing the error.

I'd really like to know how they got the identification that wrong (not the people on vigil; I'm assuming a lot of bandages; the doctors, morgue, et al).

August 05, 2006

You first!

Apparently, France and the US have reached a compromise to enforce on Israel and Hizb'allah:

The draft, obtained by The Associated Press, "calls for a full cessation of hostilities based upon, in particular, the immediate cessation by Hezbollah of all attacks and the immediate cessation by Israel of all offensive military operations."

That language would be a major victory for Israel, which has insisted it must have the right to respond if Hezbollah launches missiles against it. France and many other nations had demanded an immediate halt to violence without conditions as a way to push the region back toward stability.

Wow! It's a major victory that a cessation in hostiliites requires the aggressor to stop shooting, too?

The resolution asks that Israel and Lebanon agree to a set of principles to achieve a long-term peace. One crucial element is an arms embargo that would block any entity except the Lebanese government from buying weapons.

Wait a second. I thought that Lebanon wasn't at war with Israel? Isn't that what the Lebanese keep telling everyone? "This isn't our war, it's those wacky militants in the south, who have nothing to do with us, except seats in our parliament, and better equipment than our military!"

Other principles spelled out in the resolution include the disarmament of Hezbollah; the creation of a buffer zone from the U.N.-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon north to the Litani River; and the delineation of Lebanon's borders, especially in the disputed Chebaa Farms area.

The border was already delineated in 2000, folks. How is this a victory for anyone but Hizb'allah?

The resolution would call for the current U.N. force in Lebanon, known by its acronym UNIFIL, to monitor the cessation in fighting. Once Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the series of principles, the Security Council would then authorize a new peacekeeping force for the region.

Because UNIFIL has such a track record of history?

Any deal will have to gain the acceptance of both Israel and Hezbollah, which could prove difficult.

Umm, I thought it was Lebanon a few paragraphs ago? I see - are we now admitting that Hizb'allah has veto authority over the Lebanese government?

Israel says it wants to continue fighting for up to two weeks to seriously diminish Hezbollah's military capability; Hezbollah's chief spokesman said Thursday the militia will not agree to a cease-fire until all Israeli troops leave Lebanon.

Does that include the two you are holding?

Encouraging signs

It's Shabbat, so time for a sign that maybe, we're repairing the world faster than we are tearing it down.
Via MidEast Youth, and The Offside, teamwork arises:

Around 19:04 on Friday night, the Football Peace Team from Israel and Palestine landed in Zurich. From August 3rd to 6th, the twenty U16 players will participate in the 4th International Swiss U16 Cup in Bad Ragaz (Switzerland).

Seeds of Peace's summer camp is going strong, and I note this encouraging sign:

If it wasn’t for this arrangement of bunks, I probably would have lost out on the opportunity/privilege to integrate with some of the nicest people! I don’t believe that coexistence is the final goal, but integration with the “other side” is.

August 04, 2006

The Economy of Second-Hand Missiles

Since today seems to be "answer questions day", I thought I'd address AbbaGav's:

Consider the overhead costs of maintaining these ten thousand missiles year after year. This would just be a nightmare for Hizballah's accountants, who I'm sure are praying, to a man, that Nasrallah fires off every last one of these suckers right away. Consider just the inventory taxes -- do you have any idea what the depreciation schedule is for second-hand missiles?

I thought I'd take a look into this. Now, granted, Hizb'allah isn't a publicly traded stock (rumor has it they are in negotiation to acquire Herlitz AG to get the coveted "HEZ" listing), but we'll use GAAP rules anyway, as the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles seems like a good start.

Under GAAP, calculating depreciation requires four things: the cost, estimated life, residual value, and the method of depreciation.

The cost is the hardest thing to calculate. Hizb'allah has sold itself to Iran and Syria to get the missiles; so effectively, they represent a round of VC funding for Hizb'allah. Like most VC rounds, this probably wipes out any previous shareholder value. Let us assume that Hizb'allah has 10,000 potential shahids (like most good companies, they can inflate their numbers). Since each shahid's life is valued at the requisite 72 virgins, the capital value of Hizb'allah is thus worth 720,000 virgins. Therefore, each of the 10,000 missiles must have a value equivalent to 72 virgins.

Next, is the estimated life. Now, this one's pretty hard. I wonder if Hizb'allah's annual report's risks section says something like "Zionist Aggressor. Any day, those darned Israelis may decide to stop putting up with our shit, and come over and kick our asses, and destroy our missiles. If so, this may drastically reduce our long-term ability to induce more shahids to join our cause, and grow our potential virgin pool." Of course, this assumes we're treating the missiles like a capital expense, instead of like an operating expense, which they more closely resemble. Functionally, each missile has two lifespans: deterrent/threat as capital, and to shoot at Israelis as an operating expense. But we can actually set the estimated life to be 37 years, and then use a trick to depreciate it.

Normally, depreciation is done as a straight line, or even some front-loaded models. We, however, want to rear-load the depreciation, so we are going to select the units of production method. Under this method, instead of depreciating simply based on time, we depreciate based on units produced - that is, missiles fired. Here, we'll employ a one-to-one ratio; each missile fired fully depreciates the remaining value of the missile. Since we can assume a bathtub curve of missile failures, we'll additionally depreciate 10% of the value in the first year, 1% in each of the next 30 years, and 10% in the subsequent 6 years; this ties to the 37 year depreciation span. If we postulate that the delivery of missiles had been evenly spread over the previous 6 years, prior to this conflict, Hizb'allah accountants had to depreciate 108,000 virgins (rumors that Allah heaved a sigh of relief are believed to be infidel lies).

Now, for residuals. What is a rocket worth after it fires? According to Aussie Dave, channelling Arutz Sheva, the launching of 2268 missiles has resulted in 28 fatalities, and 642 injuries. Hizb'allah bookkeepers take a notoriously dim view of survivors, as the Zionist have been known to rehabilitate them, and even allow them to breed (damn that Jewish uterus!). Hizb'allah accountants do, however, note the fatality rate of .01234568 casualties for each missile (even though some casualties can be retroactively declared shahid, this is not currently within the long-range business plan, and thus, is simply upside). But what is a dead Jew worth to a Hizb'allah accountant? Well, according to Wikipedia, 26.3% of Israelis are under the age of 15, only 48% of whom are female (male virgins, despite rumors to the contrary, are not useful in the heavenly bartering system, and females are preferred to be under the age of 15). Statistically, therefore, each rocket is expected to send .00158514 useful virgins to the afterlife., this is the residual.

Hence, each rocket fired has a average depreciation on use of 61.1984149 virgins. Compared to the normal annualized depreciation of 7200 virgins, each batch of 117.65 rockets effectively burns one additional year of depreciated value.

Global Power comparison

Patrick at Middle East Youth wonders:

When one country is more powerful and influential than a group of 25 nations, you know you have a problem in global power allocation.

Patrick, “global” power is merely an indicator of a nation’s economic, military, and diplomatic power. So if you question why Europe in aggregate ranks below the US, you should look at those three areas.

For economic power, most of Europe has descended into the trap that is socialism, which has a tendency to stifle economic growth. Further, Europe does a very poor job of integrating its immigrants - just take a look at the difference in the unemployment rates between “natives” of each country, and immigrant groups. The US, on the other hand, has a strong legal system to combat racism, which encourages immigrants to assimilate faster - and grow the economy. Additionally, the US has been fortunate enough not to have its country seriously invaded in 194 years, so hasn’t had the major setback that that entails. Combined, that puts the US ahead in the economy.

For military, there are really two big distinctions. First, the US has always invested very heavily in all research, but especially military research, realizing that even the civilian byproducts have a worthwhile benefit (aren’t we all happy for microwaves?); combined with economic strength, this leads to having superior military technology. And second, the US military is a volunteer military, with an incredible level of professionalism (even the loudest critics of abuses by US military personnel should admit that those personnel, at least, tend to face swift justice). This leads to a military whose individuals tend to have superior discipline and training, and armed with better equipment, than those of other nations.

As for diplomacy, while the US does have a bad history of abandoning projects (Somalia, Lebanon the first time around), or missing important ones (Rwanda, Darfur), it’s still a more credible force - and more credible ally - than most European nations.

Oh, and lastly - the US may be one nation; but it is a nation of 50 states. The EU only has 25.

Give Israel Your United Support

I've been perusing GIYUS for a few days - it's a nice sort of data - but I couldn't stop laughing at Sandmonkey's description on finding it:

This is Genius!

When it comes to psychological warfare, the Israelis don't mess around, do they?

Nope. But then, they don't have the pro bono services of CNN, AP, AFP, and Reuters.

Peace is not the cessation of Violence

A lot of people have been clamoring for "peace" in the Middle East, asserting that a ceasefire would bring it about. Unfortunately, they're wrong, they don't understand peace.

Peace is the ability to not worry that one day, your neighbor will attack you.

Peace is the ability to practice your religion in the way you choose to, and not fear your co-religionists, the religious police, adherents of another religion, or the government.

Peace is the ability to wear what you want, eat what you want, work at the job you want - if the employer wants to hire you - spend your money how you want.

Peace is the ability to say what you want.

Peace is the ability to choose your side, and to choose to fight for it.

Does a ceasefire lead to any of these?

No. Hizb'allah will still be able to attack Israel. Civilians in Israel will still have to worry about rockets from Lebanon or Gaza. Ahmadinejad will still call for the destruction of Israel, as will Hamas, Fatah, and Hizb'allah. Lebanese civilians will still be afraid of Hizb'allah, and careful about what they say.

When your opposition has pledged to destroy you, and is willing to sacrifice themselves, their neighbors, and their children to that cause, peace is not achieved by waiting for them to succeed. Sometimes, peace requires bloodshed.

Syria/al Qaeda wrapup

In a comment on this post, Syrian Minister of Communications and Technology Amr Salem tells us:

Alqaida and the Iran issue was never discussed with me by Sky-News or any other source. This was completely fabricated

(previous coverage: declaiming the story, bio, story here.)

Al Hayat interviews Bashar al-Assad, and leads in with:

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Al-Hayat: al-Qaida's Presence in Lebanon is Growing … Sometimes We Pursue Terrorists and They Flee There.

Yet nowhere in the article, which is written as a Q&A, is al-Qaida mentioned. Is this another disclaimable quote?

Foreign minister Walid Moallem draws a line between Hizb'allah and al Qaeda:

Asked what he meant by extremists, Moallem said "groups like al-Qaida and men like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, those who kill innocent people in Iraq, Europe and the United States."

"These people are no freedom fighters," he said. "These people are terrorists. You cannot compare them with Hezbollah or Hamas."

I'll be honest, at first I was dismissive of this quote, but this is at least a starting point for conversation. Not to defend either Hamas or Hizb'allah, but their tactics and strategies are very different than those of al Qaeda - at least today.

August 03, 2006

A disturbing trend

Seattle. Rome. Miami. Sydney. Baltimore.

Watch your backs.

The Wandering Jew

I'm glad I'm not the only one feeling a bit negative today. Meryl brings back an old post about the Wandering Jew:

The world does not like the Jews. Oh no, they say reflexively, that isn’t true. Some people don’t like Jews, but certainly not everyone. No, not everyone. But indifference and inaction is as good as anti-Semitism, because the end result is the same: Dead Jews.

It's a good look at World Jewry over the last 60 years, and public opinion. The one bright point: the US doesn't make Meryl's list. Yet.

It is time to widen the war

Who is Israel fighting against? Hizb'allah, correct? And, as the common wisdom goes, they are a rogue group that has taken control of southern Lebanon, parts of Beirut, areas of the Bekaa Valley; they operate without the consent of the Lebanese government.

Bullshit.

Israel is fighting against Lebanon. Hizb'allah is part of the government. For better of for worse, Lebanon has chosen to not risk a civil war in dealing with Hizb'allah, and has turned over control of their foreign policy to Hizb'allah. But to say that Lebanon isn't part of this war? Either Hizb'allah has invaded Lebanon, in which case the Lebanese need to declare war on Hizb'allah, or Hizb'allah is the paramilitary wing of the Lebanese Army. If Emile Lahoud can't control them, then he isn't usefully the head of state, and there has been a coup while no one was looking.

Israel is fighting against Syria. Syria is blatantly supplying Hizb'allah, with both Syrian and Iranian munitions. Syria is also giving Hizb'allah a flimsy excuse, by "ceding" the Sheba Farms to Lebanon, after Israel left Lebanon 6 years ago.

Israel is fighting against Iran. Iranian President Ahmadinejad today reiterated his call for the non-existence of Israel. Iran is providing both equipment, and technicians to operate them (sometimes) to Hizb'allah. Iran is seeking nuclear weapons; I have little doubt that Iran will use them offensively, either directly or through a proxy, against Israel.

Israel is fighting against public perception. The media likes dead bodies; the Lebanese are happy to show theirs off, while the Jews aren't. Because George Bush sides with Israel, everyone who hates him is either against Israel, or providing back-handed support (we support Israel, but think a cease-fire is the right thing given the humanitarian conditions).

What should Israel do? Declare war. Declare war on Lebanon, for using its paramilitary forces to deliberately target civilians. Force Lebanon to a treaty table. Declare war on Syria, for supplying munitions to Hizb'allah. Declare war on Iran, for calling for your destruction, and for providing Silkworms and Revolutionary Guards to Hizb'allah.

Is this a sane option? No. But there are no more sane choices. War with Iran and Syria is coming; better now than later.

Apocalypse

Because I'm feeling a trifle doomsdayish, here's one possible way it all ends. Unlikely, but a nice graphic.

(hat tip: Kat at Evenmere)

Olmert's speech - as it should be

Ben Caspit proposes what Olmert should declare to the world:

We will not hesitate, we will not apologize and we will not back off. If they continue to launch missiles into Israel from Kfar Kana, we will continue to bomb Kfar Kana. Today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. Here, there and everywhere. The children of Kfar Kana could now be sleeping peacefully in their homes, unmolested, had the agents of the devil not taken over their land and turned the lives of our children into hell.
...
Today I am serving as the voice of six million bombarded Israeli citizens who serve as the voice of six million murdered Jews who were melted down to dust and ashes by savages in Europe. In both cases, those responsible for these evil acts were, and are, barbarians devoid of all humanity, who set themselves one simple goal: to wipe the Jewish race off the face of the earth, as Adolph Hitler said, or to wipe the State of Israel off the map, as Mahmoud Ahmedinjad proclaims.

And you - just as you did not take those words seriously then, you are ignoring them again now.

Mute your speakers (some annoying embeds) and read the whole thing.

Temple Mount closed

Hmmm, I guess it isn't surprising:

The largely expected police decision to shut the Mount to Jews and Christians on the fast day came just two days after the the High Court of Justice ruled that members of the Temple Mount Faithful - with the exception of the group's leader, Gershon Salomon - could enter the site on Tisha Be'av if it is open to visitors.

The decision to shut the Mount to visitors, which was made by Jerusalem police chief Cmdr. Ilan Franco, followed an amalgamation of intelligence information that thousands of Muslims were planning to flock to the site to "protect" it from Jews who were planning to visit on Tisha Be'av at the urging of "extremist" Jewish groups, Jerusalem police spokesman Shmuel Ben-Ruby said.

Hmmm, so let me understand this. Going forward, to block Jews from doing something, all that needs to be done is cry out that one is afraid of the Jews, make a call for your supporters to show up to "protect" against the Jews, and the Jews will block their own? Wow, what a great victory.

Qana Under Review: Astonishing Nobody

Snoopy The Goon is back, and here's his commentary on Qana:

The IAF must own up to the tragic reality, show empathy and humility: these children, women and elderly were killed by our bomb. Everyone, from the pilot that pressed the bomb release button to the IDF CoS, will have to live with the moral weight and personal part played in this tragedy.

It would be grossly unjust to assign sole guilt to the IDF. We cannot ignore the gross miscalculation these murderous bastards took in starting this war, as we cannot ignore the fact that they used Kafr Qana, indeed that building as a launch site for Katyushas with blatant disregard for those innocent lives.

Someone at the IAF was listening, apparently:

Israel Defense Forces' inquiry on the bombing of a building in the south Lebanese village of Qana that killed 56 civilians admits a mistake but charges that Hezbollah guerrillas used civilians as shields for their rocket attacks, according to a statement released early Thursday.
...
In a statement summarizing the inquiry report, the Israeli military said Israel did not know there were civilians in the building. "Had the information indicated that civilians were present ... the attack would not have been carried out," the statement said.

So chalk up an intelligence victory for Hizb'allah - and maybe this wasn't such a farfetched conspiracy theory:

Sunday, Hizb'allah slaughtered 37 children in the village of Qana, in addition to a score of adults. Hizb'allah leader Nasrallah was not available for comment, as he was coordinating his next strikes with Syrian and Iranian government officials in Damascus, but a notional Hizb'allah operative gloated off camera, "We knew we could get the Israelis with this one! 50 of our own people! They are shahid to the cause! And many of them were handicapped, so we have killed two birds with one stone!"

Of course, now Hizb'allah's PR wing can relax, because HRW is on the case:

HRW said Israel's contention that Hezbollah fighters were hiding among Lebanese civilians did not justify its "systematic failure" to distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Hmmm, but what justifies the media's, and HRW's systematic failure to distinguish between them? Oh, the fact that Hizb'allah terrorists dress up in civvies and park their rocket launchers next to residential buildings might have something to do with it?

Converging to Lebanon

Jameel at The Muqata questions Olmert's rationale for pushing the "convergence" plan during this war, and provides a call to action.

August 02, 2006

Project Runway

The problem with letting Ann Althouse drive to a conference and fill in for Glenn Reynolds is she stops covering Project Runway! Well, it's a dirty job, but.... (spoilers follow)

Did anyone not see them building up to Keith's eviction? Granted, I was wondering if it was the bargaining at the fashion store, but bringing books? Come on.

As for Angela, she did one thing incredibly well: picking a team. Laura and Michael were a good fit, and Angela listened to them. Much as I'm not a big fan of Angela, she did a great job at that; and Laura and Michael, as Tim said, "tamed the beast!"

Bonnie? Her design was, "enh" -- I felt sorry for her to end up with Bradley (any takers for how long he's going to last?); but I wondered why the model didn't take the jacket off during her runway walk.

Robert? What was he thinking to pick Vincent? Oh my. And they even identified that the outfit looked like a 70's stewardess, and still went with it.

And lastly, Jeffrey. One of these shows he'll be eliminated, but not for a while. Much as we love to hate him, he's a stronger designer than a few of the remaining contenders, so unless he makes a faux pas, he won't be auf'ed ... yet. He and Alison did an amazing job of recovering from Keith's departure, I thought.

So, two designers off? I wonder if Bravo either was short a challenge, and this will cover that, or had planned a double elimination, and now can skip that. We shall see!

Entering Tisha b'Av

I will admit that I am filled with a sense of foreboding as Tisha b'Av begins.

This is a first for me; this day is not one which I have historically observed; merely noted in passing. Nor am I observing it today, other than to mark - and dread - its arrival.

As others have noted, the three weeks leading up to Tisha b'Av are noteworthy for their sorrow, and as a harbinger of the destruction that always happens at this time of year. Our enemies have noted it as well. The Temple's destruction, of course, was the first event. The Second Temple's destruction. The end of the Bar Kochba revolt. The expulsion from Spain. And, apparently, the start of World War I (this was new to me).

I am not surprised to see that, for the first time, Hizb'allah has launched rockets in the nighttime at northern Israel. Nor am I surprised to see that the Islamic Movement is calling on its supporters to gather at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, to "protect" it from the Jews going to the Temple Mount to mourn. Does anyone else see a riot happening tomorrow, and it being blamed on the "provocation" of the presence of Jews going to Temple Mount?

I hope I am wrong - that I wake up tomorrow and it is just another day in this war. But somehow, I doubt it. Sleep well, my friends - and my your fast be light, the day be uninteresting, and the sun set on Eretz Yisrael.

For your Wednesday Updates

Head over to Meryl's and Dave's. Dave has bios on fallen soldiers in addition to his usual roundup; Meryl is working on recovering her snark.

Net Neutrality Advocates

Whichever side of Net Neutrality you're on, We Are The Web is an ... interesting set of characters advocating for Net Neutrality.

It's not the timestamps, folks

It's EU referendum vs. the Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse over the Qana photo shoot affair, with the Jerusalem Post reporting from the sidelines.

And hey, why shouldn't I add my own commentary?

One of the points that the AP spends most of its energy on is the timestamp argument:

The AP said information from its photo editors showed the events were not staged, and that the time stamps could be misleading for several reasons, including that web sites can use such stamps to show when pictures are posted, not taken. An AFP executive said he was stunned to be questioned about it. Reuters, in a statement, said it categorically rejects any such suggestion.

First off, I'm with Volokh:

I don't think the question of whether or not the photos were staged has any bearing on one's view of the Israel-Party of God conflict (even if they were actually faked, not just stage,that would be the least of Hezbollah's sins). It also doesn't change my view of the overall situation if 60 (original reports) 28 (more recent reports of how many bodies the Red Cross actually found there; of note that the reporters at the scene quoted the higher figure basd on pure hearsay;) or zero (conspiracy theorists) civilians were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Qana. So long as Israel has taken reasonable precautions to limit civilian casualties, as it has, the moral responsibility for any death lies with the Party of God for using Qana as a staging ground for attacks on Israel, knowing (far better than Israel) that civilians had remained in the village and were at risk. So why care if the photos were staged? Well, if that's your attitude, why not just have Oliver Stone recreate the scene and spread those photos around the international media?

That said, I can come up with any number of valid explanations for the timestamps being odd. Maybe the photographers did not have their cameras in the correct timezone; or the timezone was not synchronized with the computer they uploaded to. That accounts for the hour being wrong. And as anyone who uses a digital camera over time knows, the clocks will skew until you manually reset them (NTP doesn't work so well on a non-networked device); my wife and I run into this when we take pictures on vacation and try to create time-based slideshows. So really, those timestamps are irrelevant to the veracity of the "story."

The more damning evidence is the variety of poses and locations of Mr. Green Helmet and the bodies he carries; the precision of numbers that Hizb'allah asserted were in the building, even without bodies being found - while it is possible they had a good census, it may be that the bodies are still under the rubble - because they placed them there. And, lastly, even if this isn't a Pallywood event, the fault still lies with Hizb'allah for the deaths of the civilians. Never forget that.

And, for my last snark, quoting from AP:

"It's hard to imagine how someone sitting in an air-conditioned office or broadcast studio many thousands of miles from the scene can decide what occurred on the ground with any degree of accuracy," said Kathleen Carroll, AP's senior vice president and executive editor.

While I think a lot of people think Kathleen is pointing at all the bloggers criticizing the media, I disagree. She is actually agreeing with us. She is admitting that AP has absolutely no clue what's going on on the ground, but doesn't see that as her problem. That's where we disagree.

August 01, 2006

The Law of Unintended Consequences: Into Bekaa

Into the valley of the shadow ...:

Israel Defense Forces commandos reportedly landed by helicopter late Tuesday night near the Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek in what Lebanese security sources described as a major operation against suspected Hezbollah positions.

Lebanese security sources said the troops landed as aircraft launched several strikes near Baalbek, which is located in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. (Click here for map)

One Lebanese officer saying the Israel Air Force presence in the air above the ancient city was "unprecedented."

Captain Ed notes the effect the ceasefire had on the Israeli public:

Israel had seemed ready to shut down its offensive a few days ago, but the Israeli people rose up in indignation at the criticism leveled at them for defending themselves. This shows that the new push may have all of the critics confounded. Israel is not just looking to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon with this new action -- they want to strike at Syria.

Hizb'allah's Qana PR strategy may have backfired. By forcing Israel to slow down, now they're accelerating. While a few days ago, it seemed like Israel would not press the war to its logical next step - sealing the Syrian border - now it is. And maybe, the step after that is possible.

Okay, last Mel post....

I thought I was done with Mel. Then, there was comments thread over at Captain's Quarters, in which many asserted that drunkards espouse things they don't believe.

But, thanks to Meryl Yourish, you can find an experiment in action. Moxie and crew are testing for bottled anti-Semitism, and documenting the results for all of us! (Note: Click the "More" links on the updates for detailed empirical analysis).

Double your pleasure, Double your money!

Elder of Ziyon has extended his tzedakah matching campaign. You know you want to.

Not enough of us protest!

Apparently, protesters at MIT held a small gathering of 60 to protest Israel. This quote caught my eye:

Harvard’s Pierce Professor of Psychology Ken Nakayama, who supported the Harvard-MIT petition to divest from Israel in 2002, was present at the event.

“Harvard professors should take a more evenhanded view and not just be all pro-Israel,” he said in an interview before the event, holding a poster that read “NO U.S. $$$ FOR ISRAEL AGGRESSION!”

While I've known that certain political elements live in a fantasy world, that's a pretty impressive leap, given:


Apparently, the real problem is that professors like Ruth Wisse and Alan Dershowitz are pro-Israel, and proud of it.

Mel Gibson apology, redux

This time, Mel gets his apology right:

There is no excuse, nor should there be any tolerance, for anyone who thinks or expresses any kind of Anti-Semitic remark. I want to apologize specifically to everyone in the Jewish community for the vitriolic and harmful words that I said to a law enforcement officer the night I was arrested on a DUI charge.

I am a public person, and when I say something, either articulated and thought out, or blurted out in a moment of insanity, my words carry weight in the public arena. As a result, I must assume personal responsibility for my words and apologize directly to those who have been hurt and offended by those words.

The tenets of what I profess to believe necessitate that I exercise charity and tolerance as a way of life. Every human being is God’s child, and if I wish to honor my God I have to honor his children. But please know from my heart that I am not an anti-Semite. I am not a bigot. Hatred of any kind goes against my faith.

I’m not just asking for forgiveness. I would like to take it one step further, and meet with leaders in the Jewish community, with whom I can have a one on one discussion to discern the appropriate path for healing.

I have begun an ongoing program of recovery and what I am now realizing is that I cannot do it alone. I am in the process of understanding where those vicious words came from during that drunken display, and I am asking the Jewish community, whom I have personally offended, to help me on my journey through recovery. Again, I am reaching out to the Jewish community for its help. I know there will be many in that community who will want nothing to do with me, and that would be understandable. But I pray that that door is not forever closed.

This is not about a film. Nor is it about artistic license. This is about real life and recognizing the consequences hurtful words can have. It’s about existing in harmony in a world that seems to have gone mad.

While others might not be so forgiving, Mel, I have a proposal for you. There is a good set of Jewish leaders for you to meet with. The first is Dayna Klein, a true leader. I'd propose Pamela Waechter, but she died - as a result of anti-Semitism. After you leave Seattle, you can go to France. Alfred Dreyfus can't speak with you, but the family of Ilan Halimi can help you see the extent to which anti-Semitism can go. Then, head out to Israel. Go up to Haifa, or Tzfat, and see what Jews put up with every day.

Then, you can come home, and have a few photo ops with a local rabbi eager to get his name in the paper. But meeting with us? First, go educate yourself.

More on Qana

Via Solomonia, we learn that Libanoscopie has a scoop on Hizb'allah's Qana activities (translation):

"The Hezbollah, pinned down by the seven point plan proposed by Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which proposes a plan for deployment of the Lebanese army over all of the territory and especially in South Lebanon, and then the disarmament of the militia of the Party of God, wanted to cause the negotiations to fail. It put into operation a Machievellian plan by creating an event that would allow it to cancel this project. Knowing full well that Israel will not hesitate to bombard civilian targets, Hizbullah militants placed a rocket launcher on the roof of a building in Qana and brought disabled children inside, in a bid to provoke a response by the Israeli Air Force, to create a new situation, using the massacre of innocents to regain the initiative in the negotiations."

Maybe this wasn't so farfetched after all.

Kudos to YnetNews

YnetNews provides coverage of the analysis of the questionable coverage of Qana:

A number of web logs in the United States and Britain have claimed that a man who appeared in much of the international press's coverage of the Qana bombing lifting children's bodies may have been a Hizbullah agent who staged photo-ops for the international media.

Now if only the The Times and Post would follow suit.

Hmm, does that make this a snark about the absence of coverage in the face of coverage of the analysis of the questionable coverage of Qana?

(hat tip: the everwatchful Dave at IsraellyCool).

Poor Mel

Ha'aretz covers a WSJ report that ABC has pulled a miniseries Mel Gibson was "working on":

The incident has raised questions about the future of projects Gibson and his Icon Productions company are working on, like the ABC television miniseries based on a memoir about a Dutch Jew during World War II, the newspaper said.

An ABC representative told the paper, without elaborating, it has been two years and the network still has not seen a script, so the project is being pulled.

Is this part of the penance that the Hollywood Reporter talks about?

There will be the obligatory People magazine cover piece ("I'm Sorry!"), the equally obligatory Diane Sawyer forgiveness-begging interview ("I'm just another recovering alcoholic..."), possibly even a face-to-face primetime browbeat from America's favorite cloying finger-wagger, Dr. Phil McGraw ("What in living hell were you thinking, Mel Gibson?"). The Mea Culpa Express will soon be chugging down the tracks through your very neighborhood!

What a penance! Cancelling a show you hadn't yet figured out how to twist into denouncing the evil Jews!

Open letter to the Post and the Times

Ombudspersons (Deborah Howell, Byron Calame);

First, I will admit that most of my reading of your papers is to identify what I perceive as their bias against America, Israel, our national security efforts, and our economy. I'll except some of the guest editorials in the Post, as you do a better job of having selections that raise interesting and diverse points of view.

I'm sure by now you are aware of the events in Qana. I'm sure you're also aware - given Hizb'allah's notorious manipulation of the media; Hizb'allah's propensity for martyring the Lebanese in pursuit of their aims; the IDF's assertion that the building did not collapse when struck by their munitions; Hizb'allah's strategic positioning of assets in and around civilian structures; and images of alleged rescue workers and dead children with strange time discrepancies - that many of us who are following the attack on Israel and her war of self-defense closely question the "official" storyline. As fading bastions of investigative journalism, I would find it odd that your papers are *not* investigating these claims, were it not for my first paragraph.

My challenge to you - Investigate. Inform.


-Andy
http://www.cozikin.com/

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